Firefly Varsity

The Firefly rating

Records treat every schedule as equal. This does not. Each team's rating is its average scoring margin adjusted for the quality of the opponents it actually played, solved across every completed TSSAA game of 2026-27. Zero is an average Tennessee team.

All 305 rated teams

Both divisions, every class
#SchoolClassRecordRatingScheduleRaw margin
1Christian Academy of KnoxvilleIndependentClass AA2-0+10.0-0.4+43.0
2Sevier Co. High SchoolClass 5A2-0+9.1-3.3+28.0
3White Co. High SchoolClass 4A2-0+8.5-2.4+37.5
4Goodpasture Christian SchoolIndependentClass AA2-0+8.2-3.3+43.5
5Seymour High SchoolClass 4A2-0+8.2-3.5+34.0
6Cascade High SchoolClass 3A2-0+8.1-0.1+28.0
7Loudon High SchoolClass 4A2-0+8.1-3.2+28.0
8Page High SchoolClass 5A2-0+8.1-1.1+34.5
9Briarcrest Christian SchoolIndependentClass AAA2-0+7.9-1.8+43.0
10Happy Valley High SchoolClass 2A2-0+7.9-4.2+51.5
11Friendship Christian SchoolIndependentClass A2-0+7.9-4.4+28.5
12St. Benedict at AuburndaleIndependentClass AA2-0+7.8-4.7+29.5
13Hardin Valley AcademyClass 6A2-0+7.8-3.6+35.0
14Grundy Co. High SchoolClass 2A2-0+7.7-7.5+61.0
15East Ridge High SchoolClass 4A2-0+7.7-4.9+47.0
16Cordova High SchoolClass 6A2-0+7.6-1.7+29.5
17Franklin Road AcademyIndependentClass AA2-0+7.6-1.7+31.5
18St. George's Independent SchoolIndependentClass AA2-0+7.5-2.9+32.5
19Marion Co. High SchoolClass 2A2-0+7.4-5.7+49.5
20Columbia Central High SchoolClass 5A2-0+7.4-0.8+20.5
21Montgomery Central High SchoolClass 4A2-0+7.3-3.6+28.0
22Sunbright High SchoolClass 1A2-0+7.2-3.8+26.0
23Liberty Technology Magnet High School2-0+7.1-6.8+39.0
24Forrest High SchoolClass 3A2-0+7.1-4.3+36.0
25Kingston High SchoolClass 3A2-0+7.1-6.8+32.5
26Greenback High SchoolClass 1A2-0+7.1-0.6+22.0
27South-Doyle High SchoolClass 4A2-0+7.1-3.8+28.0
28Greeneville High SchoolClass 4A2-0+7.0-4.4+28.5
29Oneida High SchoolClass 2A2-0+7.0-3.6+26.0
30Cornersville High SchoolClass 1A2-0+7.0-6.9+32.0
31Memphis Central High SchoolClass 5A2-0+7.0-4.5+43.0
32McMinn Central High SchoolClass 3A2-0+6.8-3.6+26.5
33Cherokee High SchoolClass 4A2-0+6.7-7.8+34.0
34Arlington High SchoolClass 6A2-0+6.7-5.4+54.0
35Blackman High SchoolClass 6A2-0+6.6-3.6+33.0
36The King's AcademyIndependent2-0+6.6-5.6+24.0
37Munford High SchoolClass 5A2-0+6.4-6.2+59.5
38Obion Co. Central High SchoolClass 3A2-0+6.4-2.8+25.5
39Crockett Co. High SchoolClass 4A2-0+6.4-6.3+65.0
40Christian Brothers High SchoolIndependentClass AAA2-0+6.3+1.4+31.0
41Springfield High SchoolClass 4A2-0+6.3-4.1+25.0
42Trinity Christian AcademyIndependentClass A2-0+6.2-7.0+52.5
43Macon Co. High SchoolClass 4A2-0+6.2-5.0+27.5
44Grace Christian Academy - FranklinIndependentClass AA2-0+6.1+1.4+17.0
45Chuckey-Doak High SchoolClass 3A2-0+5.7+0.6+19.0
46Jackson Christian SchoolIndependentClass A2-0+5.6+0.4+16.5
47Milan High SchoolClass 2A2-0+5.6-6.3+30.5
48Montgomery Bell AcademyIndependentClass AAA2-0+5.5-4.6+35.5
49Sequatchie Co. High SchoolClass 3A2-0+5.5+1.9+17.5
50Providence Christian AcademyIndependentClass A2-0+5.4+3.1+13.0
51Cleveland High SchoolClass 6A2-0+5.3-1.6+17.5
52Adamsville High SchoolClass 2A1-1+5.2+2.1+20.5
53Alcoa High SchoolClass 4A2-0+5.2-1.3+22.0
54Riverdale High SchoolClass 6A1-1+5.2+1.7+18.5
55Volunteer High SchoolClass 4A2-0+4.9-4.2+29.0
56Maryville High SchoolClass 6A1-1+4.9+1.3+17.0
57Huntingdon High SchoolClass 2A2-0+4.9-0.4+26.0
58Ensworth High SchoolIndependentClass AAA2-0+4.8+1.9+15.0
59Tyner AcademyClass 3A2-0+4.7-1.0+22.0
60Science Hill High SchoolClass 6A2-0+4.6-3.6+17.5
61Northeast High SchoolClass 5A1-1+4.6-2.3+16.5
62Powell High SchoolClass 5A2-0+4.4-5.4+18.5
63Oak Ridge High SchoolClass 6A2-0+4.4-3.8+21.0
64Bledsoe Co. High SchoolClass 2A1-1+4.4-0.2+24.0
65Gibbs High SchoolClass 4A2-0+4.3-2.0+20.5
66Lexington High SchoolClass 4A2-0+4.2-4.5+24.5
67Livingston AcademyClass 4A2-0+4.1-4.8+27.0
68Southwind High SchoolClass 6A2-0+4.1-3.1+35.5
69Middle Tennessee Christian SchoolIndependentClass A1-1+4.1+0.4+13.0
70Liberty Creek High SchoolClass 4A1-1+4.0-1.0+17.0
71McKenzie High SchoolClass 1A1-1+3.9-1.4+14.5
72Trezevant High SchoolClass 2A2-0+3.9-5.3+22.0
73Knoxville Central High SchoolClass 5A2-0+3.8-3.1+21.5
74Kirkwood High SchoolClass 5A2-0+3.8-6.0+28.5
75Notre Dame High SchoolIndependentClass AA2-0+3.7-3.3+21.5
76Greenfield High SchoolClass 1A1-1+3.7-0.4+11.5
77Chester Co. High SchoolClass 4A2-0+3.7-0.8+27.0
78Knoxville Catholic High SchoolIndependentClass AAA2-0+3.7+0.5+13.0
79Humboldt High SchoolClass 1A2-0+3.6-0.2+11.0
80Cannon Co. High SchoolClass 2A1-1+3.6+2.2+15.0
81Gordonsville High SchoolClass 2A2-0+3.5+1.6+9.0
82Grainger High SchoolClass 4A1-1+3.5-5.6+15.0
83Sullivan East High SchoolClass 4A1-1+3.4-1.2+18.0
84Stratford High SchoolClass 3A2-0+3.4+1.3+9.0
85Coffee Co. Central High SchoolClass 6A1-1+3.4-2.2+12.5
86Meigs Co. High SchoolClass 3A2-0+3.3-2.5+22.0
87Haywood High SchoolClass 4A1-1+3.20.0+9.5
88Sale Creek High SchoolClass 1A2-0+3.2-5.8+27.0
89White House Heritage High SchoolClass 3A1-1+3.2-3.5+10.5
90James Lawson High SchoolClass 5A2-0+3.0-2.9+9.5
91University School of JacksonIndependentClass A1-1+3.0-5.4+17.0
92Nashville Christian SchoolIndependentClass A1-1+2.9+2.1+6.5
93Lawrence Co. High SchoolClass 5A1-1+2.8-4.0+16.0
94Mt. Pleasant High SchoolClass 2A2-0+2.8-4.7+13.0
95Hollow Rock-Bruceton Central High SchoolClass 1A2-0+2.7-4.3+15.0
96McEwen High SchoolClass 1A1-1+2.7-0.3+11.0
97Hillsboro High SchoolClass 5A2-0+2.7-3.8+12.0
98Rockvale High SchoolClass 6A2-0+2.6-1.1+9.0
99Eagleville High SchoolClass 1A1-1+2.6-1.2+10.0
100Dyer Co. High SchoolClass 4A2-0+2.6-1.6+12.0
101Waverly Central High SchoolClass 3A2-0+2.6+0.3+7.5
102White Station High SchoolClass 6A1-1+2.6-0.3+14.0
103Lincoln Co. High SchoolClass 5A2-0+2.6-0.7+8.5
104Gallatin High SchoolClass 6A2-0+2.6+0.9+7.0
105Houston Co. High SchoolClass 2A2-0+2.6-0.7+8.5
106Summit High SchoolClass 6A1-1+2.5+2.1+5.5
107Jackson Central-Merry High SchoolClass 2A1-1+2.5-3.4+11.5
108East Nashville Magnet SchoolClass 2A1-1+2.4-0.3+5.0
109Hillcrest High SchoolClass 2A2-0+2.3-3.0+10.0
110Fairview High SchoolClass 3A2-0+2.3-3.5+10.5
111Westwood High SchoolClass 1A1-1+2.2-1.0+13.0
112Beech Senior High SchoolClass 5A1-1+2.2-4.0+15.0
113Nolensville High SchoolClass 5A2-0+2.1+1.4+5.0
114Spring Hill High SchoolClass 4A1-1+2.1-0.6+17.5
115Franklin High SchoolClass 6A1-1+2.1-2.6+11.5
116Maplewood Comprehensive High SchoolClass 3A1-1+2.0+3.4+1.0
117Coalfield High SchoolClass 1A1-1+1.9+1.6+1.5
118Ooltewah High SchoolClass 5A1-1+1.9-5.4+20.0
119Houston High SchoolClass 6A1-1+1.9-0.7+9.5
120Antioch High SchoolClass 6A2-0+1.9-1.9+7.5
121Lipscomb AcademyIndependentClass AAA1-1+1.7-0.9+3.5
122Brentwood AcademyIndependentClass AAA1-1+1.6-0.1+8.5
123David Crockett High SchoolClass 5A1-1+1.6+0.2+4.5
124Marshall Co. High SchoolClass 4A1-1+1.5-0.5+5.0
125Tellico Plains High SchoolClass 2A1-1+1.5-0.6+5.5
126East Robertson High SchoolClass 2A2-0+1.4-0.4+4.5
127Dickson Co. High SchoolClass 5A1-1+1.4-0.3+7.5
128Watertown High SchoolClass 3A1-1+1.3+0.4+3.5
129Covington High SchoolClass 3A1-1+1.3+0.9+6.0
130Tennessee High SchoolClass 5A2-0+1.2-1.0+4.5
131Cookeville High SchoolClass 6A1-1+1.20.0+3.5
132Wayne Co. High SchoolClass 1A1-1+1.2-2.5+6.0
133Harding AcademyIndependentClass A1-1+1.2+3.5+6.0
134Cheatham Co. Central High SchoolClass 3A1-1+1.1-0.2+4.5
135Whitehaven High SchoolClass 6A1-1+1.0+3.4-0.5
136Donelson Christian AcademyIndependentClass A1-1+0.9-0.8+7.0
137Memphis University SchoolIndependentClass AAA1-1+0.8-4.2+12.5
138Concord Christian SchoolIndependentClass A1-1+0.7+2.0+5.0
139West Ridge High SchoolClass 6A1-1+0.6+1.4+0.5
140Hardin Co. High SchoolClass 4A1-1+0.4+1.2+1.0
141Lebanon High SchoolClass 6A1-1+0.3-2.7+3.5
142Fayette-Ware Comprehensive High SchoolClass 4A1-1+0.2-1.9-5.5
143Gibson Co. High SchoolClass 2A1-1+0.2-1.8+1.0
144Bartlett High SchoolClass 6A1-1+0.2-0.8+1.5
145McMinn Co. High SchoolClass 5A1-1+0.2+1.6-1.0
146DeKalb Co. High SchoolClass 4A2-0+0.2-1.8+2.5
147Perry Co. High SchoolClass 1A1-1+0.1-0.8+1.0
148Oakhaven High SchoolClass 1A1-1+0.1+1.3-1.0
149Rhea Co. High SchoolClass 5A1-10.0+1.9+0.5
150Peabody High SchoolClass 2A1-1-0.1-0.8+3.0
151Union City High SchoolClass 2A0-2-0.1+4.1-7.0
152Jefferson Co. High SchoolClass 6A1-1-0.1-0.2+13.5
153Rockwood High SchoolClass 1A1-1-0.1+1.7-2.0
154Soddy Daisy High SchoolClass 5A1-1-0.1+0.2-8.0
155Silverdale Baptist AcademyIndependentClass AA1-1-0.2+2.5-3.0
156Gatlinburg-Pittman High SchoolClass 3A1-1-0.2-0.6+0.5
157Stone Memorial High SchoolClass 4A1-1-0.3-1.4+0.5
158Halls High SchoolClass 2A1-1-0.3-1.8-1.5
159Father Ryan High SchoolIndependentClass AAA1-1-0.3-0.9-1.0
160Decatur Co. Riverside High SchoolClass 2A1-1-0.3-0.3-0.5
161Unicoi Co. High SchoolClass 3A1-1-0.3-0.3-0.5
162Morristown-Hamblen High School EastClass 6A1-1-0.3+1.50.0
163Tullahoma High SchoolClass 5A1-1-0.4-0.1-1.0
164Lenoir City High SchoolClass 5A1-1-0.4-0.3-1.5
165Giles Co. High SchoolClass 3A1-1-0.4+3.4-10.0
166Hendersonville High SchoolClass 5A1-1-0.4+0.4-1.5
167Lewis Co. High SchoolClass 2A0-2-0.4+2.8-4.0
168Daniel Boone High SchoolClass 5A1-1-0.5+0.1-1.5
169Kenwood High SchoolClass 5A1-1-0.5+3.0-2.0
170Kingsbury High SchoolClass 5A1-1-0.6-4.2+5.5
171Davidson AcademyIndependentClass AA1-1-0.6-2.3+3.0
172Signal Mountain High SchoolClass 4A1-1-0.6-1.8+2.0
173Knoxville Halls High SchoolClass 5A0-2-0.7+4.4-6.5
174Eagleton College and Career AcademyClass 2A1-1-0.8+0.1-5.0
175Austin-East High SchoolClass 3A1-1-0.8+0.6-3.0
176Warren Co. High School0-2-0.8+2.1-4.5
177Lookout Valley High SchoolClass 1A1-1-0.9-0.1-2.5
178Monterey High SchoolClass 2A1-1-0.9-2.6-6.0
179Manassas High SchoolClass 1A0-2-1.0+3.1-6.0
180Stewart Co. High SchoolClass 3A1-1-1.0+3.1-6.0
181Summertown High SchoolClass 2A1-1-1.2+2.0-5.5
182Franklin Christian AcademyIndependentClass A1-1-1.3+1.2-5.0
183Moore Co. High SchoolClass 1A1-1-1.3+0.2-7.5
184Fairley High SchoolClass 2A1-1-1.3+1.0-15.5
185Henry Co. High SchoolClass 5A1-1-1.4+1.4-5.5
186Lakeland Preparatory SchoolClass 4A1-1-1.4-3.7-3.5
187McGavock High SchoolClass 6A1-1-1.4-1.7-2.0
188Heritage High SchoolClass 4A1-1-1.5+1.6-14.0
189Centennial High SchoolClass 5A0-2-1.6+0.1-5.0
190Chattanooga Christian SchoolIndependentClass AA1-1-1.7+3.3-15.5
191Wilson Central High SchoolClass 6A0-2-1.7-1.7-6.0
192Oakdale High SchoolClass 1A1-1-1.8-0.5-8.5
193Smyrna High SchoolClass 6A0-2-1.8-2.0-1.0
194Green Hill High SchoolClass 6A1-1-1.8+5.2-16.5
195Sycamore High SchoolClass 3A1-1-1.9+0.4-6.0
196Stewarts Creek High SchoolClass 6A1-1-2.0+0.9-7.0
197Bradley Central High SchoolClass 6A0-2-2.0-1.6-4.5
198Melrose High SchoolClass 3A1-1-2.0+2.4-15.5
199Midway High SchoolClass 1A1-1-2.1-1.2-5.0
200East Hamilton High SchoolClass 5A1-1-2.1-2.4-11.0
201Hickman Co. High SchoolClass 2A1-1-2.1-0.3-6.0
202Evangelical Christian SchoolIndependentClass AA1-1-2.2+5.5-16.5
203Northview AcademyClass 4A1-1-2.2-2.5-6.5
204Kirby High SchoolClass 4A0-2-2.3-3.3-6.0
205North Greene High SchoolClass 1A1-1-2.3+0.2-9.5
206Pearl Cohn High SchoolClass 4A1-1-2.3+0.2-4.5
207Germantown High SchoolClass 6A1-1-2.3+1.1-13.5
208West High SchoolClass 5A1-1-2.6-1.3-10.0
209Cosby High SchoolClass 1A1-1-2.7+0.9-9.0
210Smith Co. High SchoolClass 2A1-1-2.7-0.5-7.5
211Elizabethton High SchoolClass 4A0-2-2.7+2.9-8.5
212KIPP Memphis Collegiate SchoolClass 1A1-1-2.8-2.8-16.0
213White House High SchoolClass 4A0-2-2.8-1.5-4.5
214Chattanooga Preparatory SchoolClass 3A0-2-2.9+3.9-17.5
215Independence High SchoolClass 6A0-2-3.0+2.6-11.5
216Battle Creek High SchoolClass 4A0-2-3.0+5.1-14.0
217Huntland High SchoolClass 1A1-1-3.1+0.6-15.0
218Dyersburg High SchoolClass 3A0-2-3.1+1.2-13.0
219Union Co. High SchoolClass 4A1-1-3.2+3.9-16.5
220The Howard School1-1-3.2+1.4-22.0
221Harpeth High SchoolClass 3A0-2-3.2+0.3-12.5
222Cane Ridge High SchoolClass 6A1-1-3.2+2.4-19.0
223Portland High SchoolClass 5A1-1-3.3+0.6-17.0
224Craigmont High SchoolClass 4A1-1-3.4+1.8-14.5
225Walker Valley High SchoolClass 5A1-1-3.5+1.6-12.0
226Shelbyville Central High SchoolClass 6A1-1-3.6+0.6-9.0
227Wartburg Central High SchoolClass 1A0-2-3.6+1.6-12.5
228Brentwood High SchoolClass 6A1-1-3.7-0.1-17.0
229Richland High SchoolClass 1A1-1-3.8+1.7-23.5
230Raleigh Egypt High SchoolClass 3A0-2-3.9+1.7-23.0
231Clarksville High SchoolClass 6A0-2-4.0+6.5-18.5
232Rossview High SchoolClass 6A0-2-4.1+5.1-19.5
233Anderson Co. High SchoolClass 4A0-2-4.2+4.0-16.5
234Fayetteville High SchoolClass 1A0-2-4.2+1.8-15.0
235Upperman High SchoolClass 4A1-1-4.3+3.2-16.5
236Columbia AcademyIndependentClass AA1-1-4.3+0.5-30.5
237Sheffield High SchoolClass 2A1-1-4.50.0-19.0
238Trousdale Co. High SchoolClass 2A0-2-4.5+3.9-17.5
239Morristown-Hamblen High School WestClass 5A0-2-4.6+5.8-22.0
240Alvin C. York InstituteClass 2A0-2-4.6+4.1-20.0
241South Gibson Co. High SchoolClass 4A0-2-4.6+6.6-27.5
242Carter High SchoolClass 4A0-2-4.7+1.0-25.5
243Pope Saint John Paul II Preparatory SchoolIndependentClass AA0-2-4.7+3.3-18.5
244Camden Central High SchoolClass 3A0-2-4.7+2.3-25.0
245South Greene High SchoolClass 2A0-2-4.8-0.4-14.0
246Cloudland High SchoolClass 1A0-2-4.9+2.9-25.0
247Brainerd High SchoolClass 3A0-2-5.0+2.1-31.5
248Christ Presbyterian AcademyIndependentClass AAA0-2-5.0+1.4-27.0
249Ripley High SchoolClass 3A0-2-5.1+3.2-38.0
250Frederick Douglass High SchoolClass 3A0-2-5.1+1.2-19.0
251Scotts Hill High SchoolClass 2A0-2-5.2+1.4-17.0
252West Greene High SchoolClass 2A0-2-5.3-2.5-11.0
253East Hickman High SchoolClass 2A0-2-5.4+4.8-21.0
254Creek Wood High SchoolClass 4A0-2-5.5+5.0-24.5
255Whitwell High SchoolClass 1A0-2-5.8+0.7-28.5
256Lake Co. High SchoolClass 1A0-2-5.8+7.1-26.0
257Bluff City High SchoolClass 2A0-2-6.0+2.1-24.0
258Ridgeway High SchoolClass 4A0-2-6.0+3.1-38.5
259William Blount High SchoolClass 5A0-2-6.0+3.6-21.5
260Millington Central High SchoolClass 4A0-2-6.0+2.5-39.5
261Mt. Juliet High SchoolClass 6A0-2-6.2+2.0-22.5
262Fulton High SchoolClass 4A0-2-6.2+5.0-30.5
263Memphis Business AcademyClass 2A0-2-6.4+6.3-60.5
264Greenbrier High SchoolClass 4A0-2-6.4+0.7-20.0
265Zion Christian Academy0-2-6.4+4.7-21.5
266Polk Co. High SchoolClass 2A0-2-6.5+7.1-33.5
267Oliver Springs High SchoolClass 1A0-2-6.6+3.1-26.5
268Grace Baptist AcademyIndependentClass A0-2-6.6+5.7-43.0
269Farragut High SchoolClass 6A0-2-6.6+6.7-26.5
270Pickett Co. High School0-2-6.8+2.7-23.5
271Clinton High SchoolClass 5A0-2-6.8+1.5-28.5
272Memphis East High SchoolClass 3A0-2-6.8+5.2-59.5
273Karns High SchoolClass 5A0-2-6.9+7.4-41.5
274Pigeon Forge High SchoolClass 3A0-2-6.9+7.4-34.0
275Bolton High SchoolClass 3A0-2-6.9+4.8-42.0
276Loretto High SchoolClass 2A0-2-6.9+4.9-35.0
277Collinwood High SchoolClass 1A0-2-6.9+7.3-35.5
278Hamilton High SchoolClass 3A0-2-7.0+4.6-52.5
279Harriman High SchoolClass 1A0-2-7.0+7.0-30.5
280John Overton High SchoolClass 6A0-2-7.1+1.2-28.5
281Tipton-Rosemark AcademyIndependentClass A0-2-7.2+0.3-23.0
282Red Boiling Springs High SchoolClass 1A0-2-7.4+3.4-45.0
283Nashville Collegiate Prep0-2-7.5+2.9-50.5
284Bearden High SchoolClass 6A0-2-7.6+1.3-29.0
285Siegel High SchoolClass 6A0-2-7.6+0.7-21.0
286Innovation Academy of Robertson CountyClass 1A0-2-7.7+7.4-46.0
287Dresden High SchoolClass 1A0-2-7.7+5.0-39.0
288Community High SchoolClass 3A0-2-7.8+0.7-27.5
289LaVergne High SchoolClass 6A0-2-7.9+1.8-31.0
290West Creek High SchoolClass 6A0-2-7.9+4.2-42.0
291Claiborne High SchoolClass 3A0-2-7.9+4.2-39.5
292Johnson Co. High SchoolClass 3A0-2-8.0+4.0-46.5
293Hancock Co. High SchoolClass 1A0-2-8.0+3.9-39.5
294Jackson South Side High SchoolClass 4A0-2-8.0+4.1-38.5
295Hixson High SchoolClass 4A0-2-8.2-1.1-23.5
296Sequoyah High School - MadisonvilleClass 4A0-2-8.4+2.9-36.5
297Glencliff High School0-2-8.6+4.7-39.5
298Bolivar Central High SchoolClass 3A0-2-8.7+1.4-35.0
299Northpoint Christian SchoolIndependentClass AA0-2-8.7+1.9-36.5
300Cumberland Co. High School0-2-8.8+1.6-38.5
301Campbell Co. High SchoolClass 5A0-2-8.8+3.1-30.0
302Chattanooga Central High SchoolClass 3A0-2-9.1+0.6-42.0
303Cocke Co. High SchoolClass 5A0-2-9.4-0.1-45.0
304Booker T. Washington High SchoolClass 1A0-2-9.6+1.7-42.0
305West Carroll High SchoolClass 1A0-2-10.1+0.2-35.5

The method, in full

Every completed game between two TSSAA member schools contributes one scoring margin to each team. A team's rating is then its average margin plus the average rating of the opponents it faced, solved by repeating that calculation until the numbers stop moving and re-centering the whole field on zero. A team rated +14 is, on the evidence so far, about two touchdowns better than an average Tennessee team on a neutral field.

Four deliberate choices

Margin is capped at 28 points. A 63-0 win counts exactly the same as a 28-0 win. Without that cap the rating rewards a coach for leaving the starters in against an overmatched opponent, and we will not publish a number that does that.

Home advantage is removed. 2.5 points are subtracted from the home side of every result before the fit, so a team is not rewarded for drawing a favorable share of home games.

A team with fewer than 2 qualifying games gets no rating at all. A number built on a single result carries an error bar readers cannot see, so we leave it blank instead.

Every rating is shrunk toward average by how little we know. Each team is credited with 4 imaginary tied games against a perfectly average opponent before its real results count. Two weeks into this season, 327 completed games among 349 teams left the schedule in 25 separate groups with no game connecting them, and without that shrinkage a group that has played only itself can drift anywhere: it briefly produced a two-win team rated nine touchdowns above average. The shrinkage fades on its own as the season links the state together.

What it cannot do

Games against out-of-state opponents are excluded, because those teams carry no rating in this pool and counting them would quietly treat an unknown opponent as an average one. Several Tennessee schools open their season out of state, so their rating rests on fewer games than their record suggests; the games-used count is on every school page.

Early in a season every rating is thin. With three or four games played, the schedule adjustment is doing more work than the results, and a team can move a long way on one Friday. This is a measure of what has happened so far, not a prediction.