Shining a light on education & government in TennesseeShining a light on education & government in TennesseeThe latest polling data, race ratings, and voter sentiment for the 2026 Tennessee governor's race. We only include polls from organizations with transparent methodology.
National forecasters rate this race based on polling, fundraising, and historical trends.
500 registered voters surveyed Feb 5-8, 2026. ±4.38% margin of error. Comprehensive polling on education accountability, school choice, the governor's race, and the state's political direction.
Editor’s note: Tennesseans for Student Success is the parent organization of Tennessee Firefly. We surface TSS polling in full alongside polls from independent sources so readers can compare.
Marsha Blackburn has led every published Republican primary poll, but her margin has narrowed. After polling in the high 50s and low 60s through late 2025 and early 2026, the most recent surveys put her at 44-63%, with John Rose at 10-29% and 14-22% of Republican primary voters still undecided. General-election matchups earlier in the cycle showed both Republicans leading Democrat Jerri Green by double digits, consistent with race ratings that uniformly rate the general election Solid or Safe Republican.
Sample Size (n) tells you how many people were surveyed. Larger samples generally produce more reliable results. Most credible statewide polls survey 600-1,200 likely voters.
Margin of Error (MoE) reflects the range of uncertainty. A candidate at 35% with a +/-3.5% MoE could actually be anywhere between 31.5% and 38.5%.
Race Ratings are assessments from national political forecasters. They weigh polling, fundraising, historical trends, and candidate quality to rate each race from “Safe R/D” to “Toss-Up.”
Early polls are directional, not predictive. They show where the race stands today, but a lot can change before voters cast ballots.
About this tracker
This tracker is produced by The Tennessee Firefly, an independent, nonpartisan news outlet covering education and government in Tennessee. We don't endorse candidates. We don't take political ads. We follow the money, the policy, and the people who shape your kids' schools. All data comes from official filings, verified reporting, and on-the-record sources, with freshness timestamps visible on every page that surfaces live data.