Shining a light on education & government in TennesseeShining a light on education & government in TennesseeThe latest polling data, race ratings, and voter sentiment for the 2026 Tennessee governor's race. We only include polls from organizations with transparent methodology.
National forecasters rate this race based on polling, fundraising, and historical trends.
500 registered voters surveyed Feb 5-8, 2026. ±4.38% margin of error. Comprehensive polling on education accountability, school choice, the governor's race, and the state's political direction.
Tracking Blackburn's primary support from Jan 2025 to Feb 2026: 71.0% to 60.6%. After dipping to 56% in January, Blackburn rebounded in the TSS poll. Undecided voters remain the key battleground at 26.1%.
28 polls from 24 pollsters
Across 6 primary polls and 2 general election polls from 4 pollsters (Targoz/Beacon Center, Quantus Insights, Fabrizio Lee, Tennesseans for Student Success), Blackburn leads the GOP primary at 60.6% in the latest survey (Feb 2026), followed by Rose (8.1%) and Fritts (5.1%). The undecided pool remains significant at 26.1%. All four major race raters classify this as Solid/Safe Republican.
Frequency: Quarterly (January, April, August, November)
Sample: 1,200 RV (typical)
MoE: ± 2.77%
Method: Online poll of registered voters, weighted by demographics, party, geography, and behavioral measures
Lean: Conservative think tank
Conductor: Targoz Market Research
Most consistent public polling source for TN governor race.
Frequency: Periodic
Sample: 600 RV
Lean: R
R-leaning firm. Conducted one TN governor poll (Aug 2025).
Frequency: Semiannual (Spring ~May, Fall ~Nov)
Sample: 1,000-1,200 RV
MoE: ± 3.0-3.6%
Method: Telephone interviews (landline + cell), registered voter list sample
Lean: Nonpartisan academic
Conductor: Vanderbilt Center for Study of Democratic Institutions
Gold standard TN state poll since 2011. Tracks approvals, issues, political environment. May add governor matchups as race heats up.
Frequency: Periodic
Sample: 600 RV
MoE: ± 4.0%
Lean: Nonpartisan academic
Middle Tennessee State University poll. No 2026 governor data yet.
Frequency: Periodic
Sample: 500 RV
MoE: ± 4.4%
Method: IVR automated telephone survey of registered voters
Lean: Education advocacy
Conductor: Tennesseans for Student Success
Education-focused statewide poll commissioned by Tennesseans for Student Success. Feb 2026 survey included governor's race horse race plus 20+ education policy questions.
Community-maintained structured polling tables. Primary data source for this tracker.
Sample Size (n) tells you how many people were surveyed. Larger samples generally produce more reliable results. Most credible statewide polls survey 600-1,200 likely voters.
Margin of Error (MoE) reflects the range of uncertainty. A candidate at 35% with a +/-3.5% MoE could actually be anywhere between 31.5% and 38.5%.
Race Ratings are assessments from national political forecasters. They weigh polling, fundraising, historical trends, and candidate quality to rate each race from “Safe R/D” to “Toss-Up.”
Early polls are directional, not predictive. They show where the race stands today, but a lot can change before voters cast ballots.
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About this tracker
This tracker is produced by The Tennessee Firefly, an independent, nonpartisan news outlet covering education and government in Tennessee. We don't endorse candidates. We don't take political ads. We follow the money, the policy, and the people who shape your kids' schools. All data comes from official filings, verified reporting, and on-the-record sources. Last updated March 17, 2026.