Blackburn vs. Green: The Polls
Polling and race ratings for the November 3, 2026 general election between Marsha Blackburn and Jerri Green, with the complete polling archive from the primary. We only include polls from organizations with transparent methodology.
Marsha Blackburn (R) vs Jerri Green (D) · November 3, 2026
General Election
The August 6, 2026 primary set the ballot. The general election is November 3, 2026.
Targoz Market Research
Quantus Insights
Quantus Insights
Race Ratings
National forecasters rate this race based on polling, fundraising, and historical trends.
Tennessee Statewide General Election Survey
500 registered voters surveyed Feb 5-8, 2026. ±4.38% margin of error. Comprehensive polling on education accountability, school choice, the governor's race, and the state's political direction.
Editor’s note: Tennesseans for Student Success is the parent organization of Tennessee Firefly. We surface TSS polling in full alongside polls from independent sources so readers can compare.
Republican Primary Polling Archive
The August 6, 2026 primary decided the nomination. The 14 polls below, from 8 pollsters, are preserved as the record of the race as it unfolded.
Wick
Race to the WH
Race to the WH
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates
Race to the WH
OnMessage Inc.
McLaughlin & Associates
Targoz Market Research
VictoryPhones
Cygnal
Targoz Market Research
Targoz Market Research
Targoz Market Research
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates
Approval and Favorability
8 statewide measuresHow Tennessee voters rate the people in and around the 2026 governor’s race. Every figure below is the polling organization’s own published number, linked to the document it came from. Approval and favorability are different questions and are labeled as the pollster asked them.
Marsha Blackburn
Statewide polls of Tennessee registered voters, published by the polling organization.
Vanderbilt Poll (Vanderbilt University CSDI)
The release reports an approval figure only. Vanderbilt has not posted a Spring 2026 topline document, so no disapproval figure is published.
Vanderbilt Poll (Vanderbilt University CSDI)
A further 1% said they need to wait and see, 2% did not know.
Jerri Green
No public pollster has published a favorability or approval measure for Jerri Green. Every survey that names her, including the Beacon Center, Quantus Insights and Vanderbilt releases listed above, tests her only as a ballot choice. This line clears itself as soon as a sourced Green datapoint is added to the data file.
Checked 2026-08-14: Beacon Center and Targoz releases and full crosstab PDFs for August 2025, November 2025, January 2026 and May 2026; Quantus Insights August 2025; Vanderbilt Poll releases and toplines; the Fabrizio, Lee and OnMessage memos, both of which surveyed Republican primary voters only; Cygnal's March 2026 memo, which carries ballot and issue questions only.
Campaign-released polling
Surveys released by a campaign or an interested party rather than an independent pollster. Both were fielded among Republican primary voters before the August 6 primary, so they measure a different electorate than the statewide polls above, and neither is a measure of the general election.
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates
Memo dated July 31, 2026 and released by the campaign. Breakdown: 36% strongly approve, 33% somewhat approve, 8% somewhat disapprove, 18% strongly disapprove, 5% did not know or refused.
OnMessage Inc. (Wes Anderson)
Among voters the memo classified as undecided, the same survey put Blackburn at 39% favorable and 48% unfavorable. Some news accounts reported 49% favorable; the memo itself says 47%.
Bill Lee, the outgoing governor
Lee is term limited and is not a candidate in this race. His job approval is included as context for the office the winner will take in January 2027, not as a measure of any candidate.
Vanderbilt Poll (Vanderbilt University CSDI)
The release reports an approval figure only.
Beacon Center of Tennessee / Targoz Market Research
Crosstabs break the total into 21% strongly approve, 34% somewhat approve, 19% somewhat disapprove, 18% strongly disapprove.
Vanderbilt Poll (Vanderbilt University CSDI)
The release credits the figure to "the governor" and does not name Bill Lee, and it publishes no disapproval figure. Vanderbilt has not posted a Fall 2025 topline document.
Beacon Center of Tennessee / Targoz Market Research
Quantus Insights
The release reports an approval figure only and does not state a margin of error.
Vanderbilt Poll (Vanderbilt University CSDI)
How this section is built
A datapoint appears here only when the polling organization published the number itself and the document is publicly reachable. Sponsor-released surveys are included when the polling memo itself is published, and they are labeled with their sponsor and the electorate they surveyed. District-level surveys are not included in a statewide section.
Every datapoint on this page was checked against the polling organization’s own document on 2026-08-14. Where a release publishes an approval figure without a disapproval figure, the row says so rather than filling the gap.
How the Polls Compared With the Result
Marsha Blackburn won the Republican nomination with 43.6% of the vote (311,328 votes). The last published primary poll (Wick, Aug 1, 2026) had shown Marsha Blackburn at 51%.
On the Democratic side, Jerri Green won the nomination with 69.0% of the vote (244,194 votes).
Complete results for every race on the ballot, county by county, are preserved in the results archive.
Understanding the Polls
Sample Size (n) tells you how many people were surveyed. Larger samples generally produce more reliable results. Most credible statewide polls survey 600-1,200 likely voters.
Margin of Error (MoE) reflects the range of uncertainty. A candidate at 35% with a +/-3.5% MoE could actually be anywhere between 31.5% and 38.5%.
Race Ratings are assessments from national political forecasters. They weigh polling, fundraising, historical trends, and candidate quality to rate each race from “Safe R/D” to “Toss-Up.”
Early polls are directional, not predictive. They show where the race stands today, but a lot can change before voters cast ballots.
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About this tracker
This tracker is produced by The Tennessee Firefly, an independent, nonpartisan news outlet covering education and government in Tennessee. We don't endorse candidates. We don't take political ads. We follow the money, the policy, and the people who shape your kids' schools. All data comes from official filings, verified reporting, and on-the-record sources, with freshness timestamps visible on every page that surfaces live data.