Firefly data analysis · November 3, 2026 general election
How Tennessee Voted in 2026
Every one of Tennessee’s 95 counties moved toward Democrats. Marsha Blackburn still won the governor’s race, by 2.6 points instead of the 32.0 points Bill Lee won by four years ago. This is every race on the ballot taken apart: county by county, stage by stage and minute by minute, from the Firefly’s own frozen results and election-night records.
95 of 95
counties moved toward Democrats
Against the 2022 governor’s race, the 2024 presidential race and Blackburn’s own 2024 Senate race, all 95.
2.6
points: Blackburn’s margin
Bill Lee won by 32.0 points in 2022. Every general-election poll had her ahead, by 5 to 24.
280
votes: the 4th District
Victoria Broderick (D) over Scott DesJarlais, out of 195,576 cast. The closest race in the state.
6
state House seats changed party
All six from Republican to Democrat, three of them in Rutherford County.
Results are the state’s unofficial returns, frozen by the Firefly on November 5. Counties certify by November 23. How every number was checked
Part 1 · The shift
Every county moved, and it moved the same way
We tested all 95 counties against four earlier races. Against every one, all 95 moved toward Democrats. The typical county moved 28.5 points from the 2022 governor’s race, 28.4 points from the 2024 presidential race and 26.9 points from Blackburn’s own Senate win two years ago. Not one county moved toward Republicans.
The smallest shift from 2022 was Decatur County’s 17.4 points; the largest was Crockett County’s 43.8 points. The cleanest test is the US Senate race, a rematch of 2020: Bill Hagerty against Marquita Bradshaw, the same two names six years apart. Hagerty’s margin fell from 27.1 points to 12.2, and Bradshaw gained ground in 95 of 95 counties, by a typical 10.8 points.
Pick a measure below to recolor the map. Click any county for its full card, or find it in the table, where every column sorts.
Every county, every measure
How far each county moved toward Democrats from the 2022 governor’s race (Bill Lee vs. Jason Martin) to 2026 (Marsha Blackburn vs. Jerri Green), in points of margin.
- Under 20 (3)
- 20 to 25 (13)
- 25 to 30 (44)
- 30 to 35 (30)
- 35 or more (5)
All 95 counties
Sort by any column, or search for a county. Margins are the Republican candidate’s share minus the Democrat’s; shift is the 2026 governor margin minus the 2022 governor margin.
| R+22.3 | R+66.1 | 43.8 toward D | 9.2% | +11.4% | R+15.0 | R+29.5 | |
| R+30.9 | R+67.7 | 36.7 toward D | 18.6% | +15.0% | R+24.1 | R+36.1 | |
| R+24.5 | R+61.0 | 36.5 toward D | 10.7% | +24.6% | R+20.2 | R+30.5 | |
| R+29.7 | R+65.7 | 36.0 toward D | 10.7% | +16.6% | R+26.2 | R+34.4 | |
| R+27.2 | R+62.3 | 35.1 toward D | 26.3% | +9.1% | R+23.4 | R+30.4 | |
| Flipped | D+8.7 | R+26.1 | 34.8 toward D | 7.6% | +35.8% | D+12.3 | D+1.4 |
| R+18.7 | R+53.1 | 34.4 toward D | 19.6% | +17.5% | R+12.3 | R+26.8 | |
| R+21.7 | R+55.4 | 33.7 toward D | 11.4% | +4.9% | R+19.8 | R+23.6 | |
| R+26.2 | R+59.8 | 33.6 toward D | 12.1% | +20.9% | R+23.5 | R+29.6 | |
| R+21.0 | R+54.1 | 33.1 toward D | 11.4% | +26.2% | R+13.9 | R+27.5 | |
| R+38.7 | R+71.7 | 33.0 toward D | 11.1% | +11.1% | R+32.9 | R+44.0 | |
| R+40.2 | R+73.1 | 32.9 toward D | 17.3% | +14.9% | R+38.8 | R+42.2 | |
| R+41.0 | R+73.8 | 32.8 toward D | 11.7% | +13.7% | R+31.3 | R+45.2 | |
| Flipped | D+3.3 | R+29.5 | 32.8 toward D | 7.4% | +13.5% | D+11.0 | R+7.5 |
| R+28.3 | R+61.0 | 32.7 toward D | 6.5% | −0.9% | R+29.4 | R+26.4 | |
| R+44.7 | R+77.4 | 32.7 toward D | 14.7% | +16.8% | R+41.9 | R+47.8 | |
| R+37.2 | R+69.7 | 32.5 toward D | 9.2% | +2.9% | R+33.7 | R+41.9 | |
| R+39.6 | R+72.0 | 32.5 toward D | 19.5% | +20.6% | n/a | n/a | |
| R+40.8 | R+72.9 | 32.2 toward D | 11.5% | +9.4% | R+36.8 | R+44.8 | |
| R+33.9 | R+66.0 | 32.1 toward D | 12.4% | +10.0% | R+29.7 | R+38.0 | |
| Flipped | D+10.1 | R+21.6 | 31.7 toward D | 7.0% | +24.0% | D+18.7 | R+0.6 |
| R+13.7 | R+45.5 | 31.7 toward D | 9.8% | +25.2% | R+6.0 | R+24.0 | |
| R+31.4 | R+62.4 | 31.0 toward D | 14.5% | +6.0% | R+23.8 | R+38.3 | |
| R+12.3 | R+43.3 | 31.0 toward D | 9.8% | +26.1% | n/a | n/a | |
| R+11.3 | R+42.2 | 30.9 toward D | 11.4% | +17.0% | R+8.0 | R+16.2 | |
| R+16.7 | R+47.6 | 30.9 toward D | 10.3% | +20.4% | R+10.9 | R+24.0 | |
| R+36.2 | R+67.0 | 30.8 toward D | 16.1% | +15.7% | n/a | n/a | |
| R+25.8 | R+56.5 | 30.7 toward D | 12.2% | +14.5% | R+19.4 | R+34.3 | |
| R+25.8 | R+56.5 | 30.7 toward D | 15.6% | +28.3% | R+16.3 | R+37.2 | |
| R+10.1 | R+40.8 | 30.6 toward D | 18.2% | +22.4% | R+8.6 | R+12.7 | |
| R+25.9 | R+56.3 | 30.4 toward D | 9.4% | +11.8% | R+18.8 | R+32.8 | |
| Flipped | D+6.5 | R+23.8 | 30.4 toward D | 7.2% | +38.7% | D+13.2 | R+2.3 |
| R+33.0 | R+63.3 | 30.3 toward D | 20.1% | +6.3% | R+32.9 | R+33.2 | |
| R+29.6 | R+59.6 | 30.0 toward D | 12.1% | +14.8% | R+21.8 | R+39.4 | |
| R+33.6 | R+63.6 | 30.0 toward D | 10.1% | +15.5% | R+29.6 | R+37.7 | |
| R+33.3 | R+63.2 | 29.9 toward D | 15.6% | +13.8% | R+27.5 | R+39.0 | |
| R+38.4 | R+68.2 | 29.8 toward D | 13.6% | +15.0% | R+37.3 | R+39.6 | |
| R+36.1 | R+65.6 | 29.6 toward D | 12.1% | +20.1% | n/a | n/a | |
| R+34.3 | R+63.9 | 29.6 toward D | 19.8% | +1.6% | R+23.1 | R+44.1 | |
| R+27.6 | R+57.1 | 29.5 toward D | 15.6% | +9.6% | n/a | n/a | |
| R+15.0 | R+44.4 | 29.3 toward D | 10.9% | +20.7% | R+8.9 | R+25.9 | |
| R+34.7 | R+63.8 | 29.1 toward D | 10.2% | +6.1% | R+30.9 | R+39.5 | |
| R+43.0 | R+72.2 | 29.1 toward D | 15.3% | +23.0% | R+41.0 | R+44.7 | |
| R+21.9 | R+50.9 | 29.0 toward D | 10.7% | +14.9% | R+15.0 | R+32.3 | |
| R+39.5 | R+68.5 | 29.0 toward D | 12.0% | +7.6% | R+35.9 | R+42.6 | |
| R+38.4 | R+67.3 | 28.9 toward D | 13.6% | +14.9% | R+30.5 | R+47.0 | |
| R+38.0 | R+66.6 | 28.7 toward D | 10.9% | +21.8% | R+31.8 | R+43.4 | |
| R+5.1 | R+33.7 | 28.5 toward D | 9.6% | +12.6% | D+0.2 | R+13.0 | |
| R+26.4 | R+55.0 | 28.5 toward D | 12.3% | +18.0% | R+19.1 | R+35.2 | |
| R+34.2 | R+62.5 | 28.3 toward D | 13.2% | −0.2% | R+27.3 | R+40.3 | |
| R+26.0 | R+54.1 | 28.1 toward D | 11.0% | +11.9% | n/a | n/a | |
| R+35.2 | R+63.1 | 27.9 toward D | 15.7% | +18.5% | R+31.7 | R+38.5 | |
| R+42.4 | R+70.3 | 27.9 toward D | 14.3% | +9.2% | R+39.0 | R+44.8 | |
| R+42.2 | R+70.1 | 27.9 toward D | 12.0% | +13.9% | R+36.5 | R+47.9 | |
| R+22.0 | R+49.7 | 27.7 toward D | 11.8% | +17.7% | R+15.7 | R+29.9 | |
| Flipped | D+6.1 | R+21.6 | 27.7 toward D | 7.2% | +22.4% | D+8.8 | D+1.4 |
| D+38.7 | D+11.3 | 27.4 toward D | 6.8% | +27.1% | D+40.4 | D+34.2 | |
| R+44.5 | R+71.8 | 27.3 toward D | 17.9% | +0.6% | R+39.7 | R+49.2 | |
| R+34.7 | R+62.0 | 27.3 toward D | 17.9% | +9.1% | R+29.0 | R+40.2 | |
| R+33.3 | R+60.6 | 27.3 toward D | 8.4% | +7.9% | R+29.6 | R+38.6 | |
| R+42.6 | R+69.8 | 27.2 toward D | 12.7% | +33.6% | R+40.9 | R+44.7 | |
| R+28.9 | R+56.1 | 27.2 toward D | 9.4% | +11.4% | n/a | n/a | |
| R+26.5 | R+53.5 | 27.0 toward D | 8.4% | +22.0% | R+23.1 | R+30.5 | |
| R+39.7 | R+66.1 | 26.4 toward D | 12.6% | +14.0% | R+34.6 | R+44.1 | |
| R+42.3 | R+68.7 | 26.4 toward D | 11.7% | +12.1% | n/a | n/a | |
| R+38.8 | R+64.9 | 26.1 toward D | 10.8% | +7.6% | R+28.0 | R+47.2 | |
| Flipped | D+22.3 | R+3.8 | 26.1 toward D | 7.7% | +22.6% | D+29.6 | D+10.5 |
| R+36.0 | R+62.1 | 26.1 toward D | 11.3% | +11.3% | R+35.3 | R+36.9 | |
| R+33.8 | R+59.7 | 25.9 toward D | 15.0% | +10.0% | R+26.2 | R+42.2 | |
| R+41.8 | R+67.5 | 25.8 toward D | 6.8% | +3.9% | R+38.6 | R+45.6 | |
| R+20.8 | R+46.5 | 25.7 toward D | 7.6% | +19.1% | R+14.0 | R+28.2 | |
| R+42.7 | R+68.4 | 25.7 toward D | 10.1% | +4.2% | R+39.9 | R+45.3 | |
| R+39.6 | R+65.2 | 25.6 toward D | 12.8% | +19.0% | R+37.8 | R+41.9 | |
| R+26.2 | R+51.8 | 25.6 toward D | 14.3% | +18.3% | R+17.8 | R+39.2 | |
| R+1.5 | R+26.9 | 25.5 toward D | 8.0% | +22.2% | D+13.8 | R+21.1 | |
| R+33.3 | R+58.7 | 25.5 toward D | 9.5% | +23.0% | R+30.1 | R+40.3 | |
| R+41.4 | R+66.9 | 25.4 toward D | 16.8% | +9.4% | R+39.9 | R+43.3 | |
| R+42.6 | R+67.9 | 25.3 toward D | 13.7% | +18.4% | R+33.8 | R+47.3 | |
| R+50.5 | R+75.6 | 25.1 toward D | 12.7% | +10.6% | R+48.1 | R+53.5 | |
| R+34.8 | R+59.4 | 24.6 toward D | 12.9% | +12.5% | n/a | n/a | |
| R+37.4 | R+61.4 | 24.1 toward D | 17.1% | +15.2% | R+32.0 | R+42.9 | |
| R+31.7 | R+55.8 | 24.1 toward D | 15.7% | +8.5% | R+21.6 | R+40.7 | |
| R+37.0 | R+60.7 | 23.8 toward D | 13.3% | +16.1% | n/a | n/a | |
| R+42.5 | R+66.2 | 23.7 toward D | 9.9% | +11.8% | R+36.9 | R+49.9 | |
| R+14.0 | R+37.5 | 23.4 toward D | 6.8% | +21.9% | R+6.7 | R+31.3 | |
| R+39.5 | R+62.7 | 23.2 toward D | 12.6% | +15.7% | n/a | n/a | |
| R+29.1 | R+52.1 | 23.0 toward D | 11.3% | +9.9% | R+26.0 | R+32.0 | |
| R+33.3 | R+55.5 | 22.3 toward D | 9.5% | +13.7% | R+24.5 | R+42.6 | |
| R+54.0 | R+75.5 | 21.5 toward D | 9.6% | +11.1% | R+50.9 | R+56.9 | |
| R+45.3 | R+66.4 | 21.1 toward D | 5.6% | +10.7% | R+33.9 | R+55.9 | |
| D+50.0 | D+29.1 | 20.9 toward D | 5.0% | +26.2% | D+57.6 | D+35.2 | |
| R+52.8 | R+73.5 | 20.6 toward D | 6.6% | +15.3% | R+47.9 | R+58.0 | |
| R+42.1 | R+61.8 | 19.7 toward D | 9.7% | +12.0% | R+39.9 | R+45.6 | |
| R+33.4 | R+51.3 | 17.9 toward D | 10.3% | −3.7% | R+29.2 | R+39.0 | |
| R+45.5 | R+62.9 | 17.4 toward D | 9.7% | +0.7% | R+42.2 | R+49.6 |
Part 2 · The flips
Rutherford County led six counties across the line
Rutherford County gave Donald Trump a 21.8-point win in 2024. On November 3 it voted for Jerri Green by 8.7 points, and three of its five state House seats flipped to Democrats. It was one of six counties that voted for Bill Lee in 2022 and for Green in 2026.
34.8
points toward Democrats since 2022
From R+26.1 for Lee to D+8.7 for Green.
+35.8%
more votes than in 2022
102,041 votes for governor, up from 75,127. Only Montgomery County grew faster.
D+12.3
Green’s early-vote margin
She carried Rutherford’s Election Day vote too, D+1.4, with 66% of its votes cast early.
Rutherford County’s five state House seats, 2024 to 2026
Ring: the 2024 margin. Dot: the 2026 margin. Three crossed the middle.
The six counties that flipped
Ring: Bill Lee’s 2022 margin. Dot: the 2026 governor’s margin.
- 2022 governor
- 2026 governor, Democrat ahead
- 2026 governor, Republican ahead
Five of the six (Hamilton, Knox, Madison, Montgomery and Rutherford) also voted for Trump in 2024. The sixth, Haywood, had narrowly backed Lee in 2022 and Kamala Harris in 2024. In the Senate race, Bradshaw carried Hamilton, Montgomery and Rutherford counties, all three of which Hagerty won in 2020.
Rutherford’s three flipped seats were decided by 556 votes (House 13), 813 votes (House 34) and 1,919 votes (House 49). In each, the Republican incumbent was on the ballot and lost. Its state Senate seat, District 13, stayed Republican: Dawn White won by 2,443 votes, after winning it by 29.4 points in 2022.
Part 3 · The independent
Where David Hatley’s 195,564 votes came from
On the same ballots, Bill Hagerty won 181,300 more votes than Marsha Blackburn, while Marquita Bradshaw won 15,979 fewer than Jerri Green. Hatley took 195,564. Add his share to Blackburn’s and you get 54.8%, within half a point of Hagerty’s 55.1%.
County by county, the pattern holds. Where Hatley did well, Blackburn fell further behind Hagerty: the two move together with a correlation of 0.83, where 1 would be a perfect match. Green’s gap to Bradshaw shows no relationship to Hatley’s vote at all (0.01). Put plainly, Hatley’s support came from voters who otherwise voted Republican, and it cost Blackburn, not Green.
Blackburn’s shortfall from Hagerty, by Hatley’s share
Each dot is a county. On the diagonal, Blackburn trailed Hagerty by exactly Hatley’s share.
- Gap equals Hatley’s share
- Best-fit line across 95 counties
Green’s shortfall from Bradshaw, by Hatley’s share
Same counties, same scale. A flat cloud near zero: Hatley drew almost nothing from Democrats.
- Best-fit line across 95 counties
It also made for ticket splitting on a scale Tennessee rarely sees. Hagerty’s margin was better than Blackburn’s in all 95 counties, by 1.5 to 23.9 points (typically 14.5). In Knox and Madison counties, voters chose Green for governor and Hagerty for the Senate on the same ballot.
A note on method: county totals show where votes moved, not how any one person voted. The comparison is strongest here because both races were on the same ballot in every county, so the voters are the same people.
Part 4 · Two electorates
Green won the early vote. Blackburn won Election Day.
In the 84 counties where we could separate the two, Green won the early and absentee vote by 7.4 points and Blackburn won Election Day by 12.6 points. Election Day was more Republican than the early vote in 83 of those 84 counties.
D+7.4
Early and absentee ballots
1,165,031 votes: Green 48.8%, Blackburn 41.5%, Hatley 8.0%.
R+12.6
Election Day ballots
759,237 votes: Blackburn 49.4%, Green 36.8%, Hatley 10.6%.
61%
of all governor votes were cast early
1,280,642 early and absentee ballots statewide, up from 51% in 2022.
Each county’s early vote against its Election Day vote
Above the diagonal, a county’s Election Day vote was more Republican than its early vote. Nearly every county sits above it.
- Same margin both ways
In five counties the two electorates picked different winners: Green carried the early vote and Blackburn carried Election Day in Anderson, Hamilton, Hardeman, Madison and Montgomery. The widest gap was in Hardeman County, where Election Day ran 34.9 points more Republican than the early vote. The Senate race split the same way: Bradshaw won the early vote by 0.4 points and Hagerty won Election Day by 25.4 points.
Part 5 · Minute by minute
Ten winners were behind at some point on election night
Victoria Broderick trailed by 19,905 votes at 8:28 p.m. and won the 4th District by 280. In the 9th, the lead changed hands six times. Blackburn never trailed, but her lead shrank to 11,722 votes, 0.8 points, at 8:34 p.m.
US House District 4: the lead through the night
Victoria Broderick trailed by as many as 19,905 votes (at 8:28 PM) and won by 280. The lead changed hands three times.
- Scott DesJarlais ahead (R)
- Victoria Broderick ahead (D)
Every comeback of the night
The winner’s deepest deficit, when it happened, and the final margin.
| Race | Winner | Down by | At | Lead changes | Won by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US House District 4 | Victoria Broderick (D) | 19,905 | 8:28 PM | 3 | 280 |
| US House District 9 | Brent Taylor (R) | 18,123 | 7:44 PM | 6 | 2,539 |
| US House District 5 | Charlie Hatcher (R) | 16,657 | 7:44 PM | 4 | 10,567 |
| US House District 7 | Matt Van Epps (R) | 8,365 | 8:34 PM | 2 | 5,233 |
| US House District 8 | David Kustoff (R) | 6,083 | 7:44 PM | 2 | 11,639 |
| State Senate District 11 | Bo Watson (R) | 2,127 | 8:01 PM | 1 | 4,606 |
| State House District 30 | Esther Helton Haynes (R) | 1,312 | 8:01 PM | 1 | 540 |
| State House District 27 | Michele Reneau (R) | 1,082 | 8:01 PM | 1 | 2,089 |
| State Senate District 13 | Dawn White (R) | 842 | 8:34 PM | 1 | 2,443 |
| State House District 83 | Mark White (R) | 254 | 8:06 PM | 1 | 335 |
Nine of the ten comeback winners were Republicans, and the reason is Part 4: early ballots posted first and leaned Democratic, so Republicans who won often spent the first hour or two behind. Victoria Broderick’s comeback ran the other way. At 7:16 p.m., with 181,640 ballots in, Blackburn led by 23.5 points. Then the big counties’ early votes landed, and the margin never got back above single digits.
Part 6 · Congress
A new map, and five races within five points
Under the congressional map the legislature redrew in May, five of the nine races were decided by five points or less. Democrat Victoria Broderick beat Scott DesJarlais in the 4th District by 280 votes out of 195,576, the closest result anywhere on Tennessee’s ballot.
All nine districts
Bars run from an even race. Each row opens that district’s full results.
- District 1Diana Harshbarger (R) over Kristi BurkeR+37.9(79,435 votes)
- District 2Tim Burchett (R) over Michaela BarnettR+16.6(41,581 votes)
- District 3Chuck Fleischmann (R) over Anna GolladayR+17.4(41,059 votes)
- District 4Victoria Broderick (D) over Scott DesJarlaisD+0.14(280 votes)Within 5
- District 5Charlie Hatcher (R) over Chaz MolderR+4.9(10,567 votes)Within 5
- District 6Johnny Garrett (R) over Mike CroleyR+3.3(7,773 votes)Within 5
- District 7Matt Van Epps (R) over Darden CopelandR+2.2(5,233 votes)Within 5
- District 8David Kustoff (R) over Heidi KuhnR+5.3(11,639 votes)
- District 9Brent Taylor (R) over Justin J. PearsonR+1.1(2,539 votes)Within 5
Testing the 9th District claim
Justin J. Pearson lost the redrawn 9th District to Brent Taylor by 2,539 votes and, conceding on November 4, said every county in the district had swung 10 to 30 points toward Democrats. We checked. Of the district’s 15 counties, 10 lie entirely inside it, so their whole-county results from 2024 are a fair baseline. All 10 moved toward Democrats against the 2024 presidential vote; 9 of 10 moved 10 points or more; none reached 30. The range ran from 9.9 points in Hardin County to 22.9 points in Bedford.
Pearson also ran ahead of his party’s Senate nominee in all 10 of those counties, by 1.5 to 4.3 points. The other five counties (Fayette, Maury, Rutherford, Shelby and Williamson) are split between districts, and county totals cannot isolate the part inside the 9th.
The 9th District’s ten whole counties
Ring: Trump’s 2024 margin in the county. Dot: Taylor’s 2026 margin over Pearson.
Part 7 · The General Assembly
Six House seats flipped, and every incumbent in them lost
Six Republican-held state House seats went to Democrats: three in Rutherford County and one each in Knox, Montgomery and Shelby. In all six, the Republican incumbent was on the ballot and lost. All 48 House seats that both parties contested in 2024 and again in 2026 moved toward Democrats, by a typical 19.2 points.
The seats that changed hands
Grades are from TSS’s public legislative scorecard, for the member who held the seat.
| Seat | County | Winner | Defeated | TSS grade | 2024 | 2026 | Won by (votes) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| House 13 | Rutherford | Brett Windrow (D) | Robert Stevens | A | R+19.8 | D+2.9 | 556 |
| House 18 | Knox | Bryan Goldberg (D) | Elaine Davis | A | R+7.5 | D+10.1 | 2,568 |
| House 34 | Rutherford | Owen Farnsworth (D) | Tim Rudd | B | R+21.0 | D+3.9 | 813 |
| House 49 | Rutherford | Connie Casha (D) | Mike Sparks | A | R+14.4 | D+10.1 | 1,919 |
| House 75 | Montgomery | Allie Phillips (D) | Michael Lankford | A | R+9.5 | D+10.0 | 1,426 |
| House 97 | Shelby | Jesse Huseth (D) | John Gillespie | A | R+3.4 | D+13.9 | 3,393 |
All 48 House seats contested by both parties in 2024 and 2026
Ring: the 2024 margin. Dot: 2026. The closest 2026 results come first, so the seats that nearly flipped sit with the ones that did; a line crossing the middle is a seat that changed hands.
- 2024
- 2026, Democrat ahead
- 2026, Republican ahead
The closest House races of the night: District 83, Mark White (R) by 335 votes; District 30, Esther Helton Haynes (R) by 540 votes; District 13, Brett Windrow (D) by 556 votes; District 34, Owen Farnsworth (D) by 813 votes. Five of the six defeated incumbents held an A on TSS’s scorecard. Of 84 House members on the November ballot, six lost.
No state Senate seat changed party. The three Senate seats contested by both parties in 2022 and 2026 all moved toward Democrats, by 19.2 points in District 7, 25.6 points in District 13 and 28.8 points in District 31, and Republicans held all three, by 3,454 votes in District 7, 2,443 votes in District 13 and 2,770 votes in District 31.
Part 8 · Stage by stage
From the polls to the count
All seven general-election polls we tracked had Blackburn ahead, by 5 to 24 points, and the five national forecasters we follow all rated the race safe or solid Republican. The final three polls averaged R+12.0. She won by 2.6.
Blackburn’s margin at each stage
One axis throughout: points of margin between the Republican and the Democrat. Rings are individual polls.
- Stage margin
- One general-election poll
The August primary hid it too. Republican primary ballots outnumbered Democratic ones 714,810 to 353,660, so Democrats cast 33.1% of primary ballots. In November, Green won 48.5% of the two-party vote, and she beat the Democrats’ August share in 95 of 95 counties, by a typical 15.0 points.
Blackburn’s own primary was a warning she survived: 311,328 votes, 43.6%, against 403,482 for John Rose and Monty Fritts combined. Green won her primary with 69.0%.
Part 9 · Turnout and money
More voters, fewer dollars, a closer race
2,102,474 Tennesseans voted for governor, 20.8% more than in 2022, and turnout rose in 92 of 95 counties. But the shift toward Democrats was nearly as large where turnout barely grew as where it surged, so new voters alone do not explain it.
+20.8%
votes for governor vs 2022
2,102,474, up from 1,739,882. That is 68.6% of the 2024 presidential turnout.
+38.7%
Montgomery County, the fastest growth
Then Rutherford (+35.8%), Claiborne (+33.6%) and Trousdale (+28.3%).
6 to 1
Blackburn’s spending edge over Green
$12.50 million to $2.08 million spent, as reported through October 31, 2026. Green finished with 94.3% of Blackburn’s vote.
Across the 95 counties, the link between turnout growth and the shift toward Democrats is weak (a correlation of -0.18). The swing was everywhere: in fast-growing suburbs and in rural counties where turnout was flat. Measured per November vote, Blackburn’s campaign spent $13.06 and Green’s $2.30. Spending totals include each primary and come from the Tennessee Registry of Election Finance; they leave out outside groups.
The three constitutional amendments
Tennessee’s constitution requires yes votes to exceed half of all votes cast for governor, not just half of the votes on the amendment.
| Amendment | Yes | No | Yes, share of amendment votes | Yes, share of governor votes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amendment 1: Bail | 1,330,845 | 651,321 | 67.1% | 63.3% |
| Amendment 2: State property tax | 1,334,067 | 664,715 | 66.7% | 63.5% |
| Amendment 3: Crime victims’ rights | 1,526,306 | 480,508 | 76.1% | 72.6% |
On the unofficial count, yes votes on each amendment equal more than half of the 2,102,474 votes cast for governor. The state certifies the outcome.
Part 10 · Method
How we did this
Results. Every 2026 number comes from the Firefly’s frozen copy of the Secretary of State’s unofficial returns (130 races, every county), the same file behind the November results archive. Before building on it we re-proved that every candidate’s county votes add up to their statewide total, in every race.
Margins and shifts. A margin is the Republican candidate’s share minus the Democrat’s, counting every vote cast in the race, so independents lower both shares. A shift is the 2026 margin minus the earlier one; a negative shift is movement toward Democrats. “R+2.6” means the Republican led by 2.6 points.
Comparison races. County results for the 2020 Senate, 2022 governor, 2024 president and 2024 Senate races, and the last result in every legislative district, come from the OpenElections project’s transcription of the state’s certified results. Each statewide total was checked against the certified figure, vote for vote, before use.
Early vote and Election Day. From the election-night desk’s saved reads: each county’s batch posted before any precinct, checked against the state’s early-voting turnout file. Election Day is the final count minus that batch, candidate by candidate. Counties where the two could not be separated are named in Part 4 and left out of every early-vote figure.
The night. The desk read the state’s results about every five minutes from 7 p.m. to past 11 p.m. Central. Two reads are not drawn: one where the state’s feed briefly reported more ballots than its own final count, and older reads saved after newer ones. Where a race’s count changed after election night, its line ends at the frozen final.
Correlations. Measured across all 95 counties, unweighted. They describe how county numbers move together, not how individual people voted.
Polls, money and grades. Polls are the Firefly’s governor poll archive; spending is the Tennessee Registry of Election Finance as of October 31, 2026; legislative grades are TSS’s public scorecard as of November 6, 2026.
Reconciliation. All checks passed: county sums equal statewide totals in every race and every baseline; early plus Election Day equals the final count in every county used; the night count ends at the frozen total. The data behind this page is free to use: download every county as a spreadsheet.