Firefly data analysis · How Tennessee Voted in 2026, part two
Tennessee, Precinct by Precinct
Which precincts vote like the whole state, election after election? And when Tennessee swung in 2026, where inside a county did the swing come from? We followed every precinct through the state’s certified results from 2020 to 2024, then into 2026 wherever a county has published its own precinct results: so far Shelby, Montgomery, Rutherford, Hamilton, Knox, Madison and Davidson.
One
precinct within 2 points of Tennessee in all five races
Precinct 7 Hardison, Marshall County, 2020 to 2024. Six of the 1,024 precincts that voted Republican in all five, as the state did, stayed within 5 points every time.
5 of 8
top bellwethers landed within 5 points again in 2026
Of the 50 closest precincts from 2020 to 2024, the eight in counties with 2026 results. Precinct 64 Solway in Knox County voted R+2.1; the state voted R+2.6.
585 of 590
precincts moved toward Democrats
In the seven counties with 2026 precinct results, against the 2022 governor’s race. 130 went from Bill Lee to Jerri Green.
302 of 355
precincts where Election Day ran more Republican
Than the same precinct’s early vote, in the four counties that split precincts by vote type.
2020 to 2024: the Secretary of State’s certified precinct results. 2026: each county’s own published results, matched to the state’s unofficial returns vote for vote. Counties certify by November 23. How every number was checked
Part 1 · The bellwethers
The precincts that vote like Tennessee
We followed 1,166 precincts through all five statewide races from 2020 to 2024. Of the 1,024 that voted Republican every time, as the state did, and cast at least 100 votes in each race, six landed within 5 points of the statewide margin in all five. Only one stayed within 2: precinct 7 Hardison in Marshall County, which missed Tennessee’s margin by an average of 0.9 points and never by more than 1.8 points.
Between 2020 and 2024, Tennessee’s Republican margin ran from R+23.2 (2020 president) to R+32.0 (2022 governor). A bellwether precinct is one that moved with it: the right winner every time, and a margin close to the state’s every time. For each precinct we measured the miss in each race, its margin minus the state’s, and ranked precincts by their average miss.
Precinct 7 Hardison voted R+23.2 for president in 2020 when the state voted R+23.2, R+33.7 for governor in 2022 when the state voted R+32.0, and R+31.5 for president in 2024 when the state voted R+29.7. It cast 1,191 votes for president in 2024.
The ten precincts closest to the statewide margin, 2020 to 2024
Each dot is one statewide race; the center line is Tennessee’s own margin in that race. Five races: 2020 president and US Senate, 2022 governor, 2024 president and US Senate.
4.4
points: the best 50, in 2024
Chosen on the three races of 2020 and 2022, then measured on the two races of 2024, which they were not chosen on.
34.7
points: every precinct, in 2024
The median 2024 miss across all 1,153 precincts with a full record and at least 100 votes in each race.
18 of 50
stayed within 5 points in 2024
Against 27 of 1,153 precincts overall.
Does a bellwether stay one? We ranked every precinct on 2020 and 2022 alone, then checked 2024. In a year that looked like the ones before it, a precinct that had tracked the state kept tracking it: the 50 closest missed the 2024 margins by a median 4.4 points, against 34.7 points for the typical precinct.
2026 was not that kind of year. The state’s margin in the governor’s race fell 29.4 points, from R+32.0 to R+2.6. That is the real test of a bellwether, and eight of the 50 closest precincts from 2020 to 2024 sit in counties that have already published 2026 precinct results. Five of the eight landed within 5 points of the state again; their typical miss was 3.8 points, against 39.4 points for the typical precinct in the same counties. Knox County’s precinct 64 Solway, the 10th closest from 2020 to 2024, voted R+2.1 for governor when Tennessee voted R+2.6, and R+11.0 for the Senate when Tennessee voted R+12.2.
The bellwethers, tested on 2026
The 50 closest precincts from 2020 to 2024 that sit in a county with 2026 precinct results, by their rank and average miss over those five races. Miss: the precinct’s 2026 margin minus the state’s (R+2.6 for governor, R+12.2 for the Senate).
2
- Precinct
- 82 Ellistown
- County
- Knox
- Avg. miss before
- 2.1
- 2026 governor
- D+5.6
- Governor miss
- −8.2
- 2026 Senate
- R+2.4
- Senate miss
- −9.8
5
- Precinct
- 70E Amherst
- County
- Knox
- Avg. miss before
- 2.3
- 2026 governor
- D+0.8
- Governor miss
- −3.4
- 2026 Senate
- R+6.8
- Senate miss
- −5.4
9
- Precinct
- 74 Shannondale
- County
- Knox
- Avg. miss before
- 2.9
- 2026 governor
- R+4.8
- Governor miss
- +2.2
- 2026 Senate
- R+13.8
- Senate miss
- +1.6
10
- Precinct
- 64 Solway
- County
- Knox
- Avg. miss before
- 2.9
- 2026 governor
- R+2.1
- Governor miss
- −0.5
- 2026 Senate
- R+11.0
- Senate miss
- −1.2
14
- Precinct
- 2A Clarksville
- County
- Montgomery
- Avg. miss before
- 3.0
- 2026 governor
- R+10.8
- Governor miss
- +8.2
- 2026 Senate
- R+19.7
- Senate miss
- +7.5
34
- Precinct
- 65N Concord North
- County
- Knox
- Avg. miss before
- 5.2
- 2026 governor
- R+0.9
- Governor miss
- −1.7
- 2026 Senate
- R+9.2
- Senate miss
- −3.0
35
- Precinct
- 18-2
- County
- Rutherford
- Avg. miss before
- 5.3
- 2026 governor
- D+4.9
- Governor miss
- −7.4
- 2026 Senate
- R+4.0
- Senate miss
- −8.1
36
- Precinct
- 69S Northshore
- County
- Knox
- Avg. miss before
- 5.4
- 2026 governor
- D+1.5
- Governor miss
- −4.1
- 2026 Senate
- R+7.6
- Senate miss
- −4.5
| Rank | Precinct | County | Avg. miss before | 2026 governor | Governor miss | 2026 Senate | Senate miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 82 Ellistown | Knox | 2.1 | D+5.6 | −8.2 | R+2.4 | −9.8 |
| 5 | 70E Amherst | Knox | 2.3 | D+0.8 | −3.4 | R+6.8 | −5.4 |
| 9 | 74 Shannondale | Knox | 2.9 | R+4.8 | +2.2 | R+13.8 | +1.6 |
| 10 | 64 Solway | Knox | 2.9 | R+2.1 | −0.5 | R+11.0 | −1.2 |
| 14 | 2A Clarksville | Montgomery | 3.0 | R+10.8 | +8.2 | R+19.7 | +7.5 |
| 34 | 65N Concord North | Knox | 5.2 | R+0.9 | −1.7 | R+9.2 | −3.0 |
| 35 | 18-2 | Rutherford | 5.3 | D+4.9 | −7.4 | R+4.0 | −8.1 |
| 36 | 69S Northshore | Knox | 5.4 | D+1.5 | −4.1 | R+7.6 | −4.5 |
Every county’s closest precinct
The precinct in each county with the smallest average miss from 2020 to 2024, for the 89 counties with at least one precinct we could follow that far. A county’s closest precinct can still be far from the state.
| County | Precinct | State House | Avg. miss | Worst miss | 2024 president |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anderson | Clinton | 33 | 12.0 | 17.2 | R+40.3 |
| Bedford | 7-1 Deery Eakin | 62 | 6.1 | 7.1 | R+35.6 |
| Benton | 5 Library | 74 | 25.0 | 27.3 | R+56.0 |
| Bledsoe | 4-1 Pikeville | 31 | 20.9 | 25.0 | R+52.9 |
| Blount | Maryville Jr High | 20 | 2.7 | 5.0 | R+24.7 |
| Bradley | 3-1 Lee University | 24 | 2.1 | 3.4 | R+33.1 |
| Campbell | 5-3 Jellico | 36 | 28.0 | 31.0 | R+60.7 |
| Cannon | 2-4 Short Mountain | 40 | 12.1 | 16.8 | R+46.6 |
| Carter | Harold McCormick | 4 | 15.2 | 20.0 | R+42.7 |
| Cheatham | 6-1 Harpeth | 78 | 3.0 | 5.2 | R+30.9 |
| Chester | 6-1 City Hall | 72 | 17.7 | 26.4 | R+44.6 |
| Claiborne | 9-1 Clairfield | 36 | 25.2 | 32.9 | R+62.6 |
| Clay | 3 Celina | 38 | 12.7 | 19.6 | R+44.6 |
| Cocke | Central | 11 | 20.4 | 22.9 | R+52.6 |
| Crockett | 10 | 82 | 6.5 | 11.8 | R+22.8 |
| Cumberland | 9 Fairfield North | 25 | 22.6 | 32.6 | R+43.3 |
| Davidson | 01-1 | 50 | 7.7 | 16.8 | R+29.0 |
| Decatur | 4-1 Decaturville | 72 | 22.5 | 26.9 | R+56.6 |
| DeKalb | 4-2 Rock Castle | 40 | 24.0 | 28.5 | R+53.4 |
| Dickson | 8-1 | 69 | 3.0 | 7.1 | R+36.8 |
| Dyer | G- Courthouse | 77 | 11.2 | 17.5 | R+37.5 |
| Fayette | Somerville | 94 | 4.6 | 13.1 | R+30.1 |
| Fentress | East Jamestown | 38 | 33.6 | 36.5 | R+62.5 |
| Franklin | 8-1 Decherd | 39 | 9.8 | 11.9 | R+37.7 |
| Gibson | 10-22 Agri-Plex | 79 | 9.1 | 11.5 | R+19.7 |
| Giles | 7B Rec Center | 70 | 5.7 | 9.6 | R+34.2 |
| Grainger | 5-1 | 10 | 33.1 | 35.4 | R+63.4 |
| Greene | 7 High School | 5 | 4.5 | 9.1 | R+37.1 |
| Grundy | Monteagle | 47 | 18.4 | 26.0 | R+49.0 |
| Hamblen | 01-1 | 10 | 4.7 | 7.3 | R+34.0 |
| Hancock | 6th | 9 | 37.1 | 43.6 | R+73.3 |
| Hardeman | Hickory Valley | 80 | 15.7 | 25.4 | R+54.2 |
| Hardin | Fairground 10-1 | 71, 72 | 30.4 | 33.0 | R+61.3 |
| Hawkins | 1 Allandale | 3 | 15.7 | 18.6 | R+40.2 |
| Haywood | 6-1 | 80, 81 | 6.6 | 11.6 | R+41.3 |
| Henry | 3-1 | 76 | 33.4 | 36.0 | R+62.2 |
| Hickman | 5-3 Shady Grove | 69 | 22.1 | 25.9 | R+51.4 |
| Houston | Erin | 74 | 11.1 | 18.3 | R+48.0 |
| Humphreys | 3-4 MLEC | 74 | 8.3 | 10.9 | R+40.6 |
| Jackson | 1-2 | 40 | 15.7 | 19.5 | R+49.2 |
| Jefferson | 10 Jeff City Fire Dp | 11, 17 | 16.8 | 18.7 | R+48.4 |
| Johnson | 7 City | 3 | 34.5 | 38.5 | R+61.9 |
| Knox | 82 Ellistown | 19 | 2.1 | 4.8 | R+30.2 |
| Lake | 2 Courthouse | 77 | 16.7 | 24.2 | R+44.6 |
| Lauderdale | Ripley 2 | 82 | 2.7 | 5.8 | R+28.5 |
| Lawrence | 01-2 West Loretto | 70 | 17.0 | 23.3 | R+47.9 |
| Lewis | 1-1 | 69 | 4.8 | 9.7 | R+30.3 |
| Lincoln | 3-1 Recreation Center | 62 | 11.8 | 15.7 | R+37.0 |
| Loudon | Tellico V. North | 21 | 14.6 | 22.3 | R+37.3 |
| Macon | Lafayette | 38 | 36.3 | 41.2 | R+64.2 |
| Madison | 10-3 Victory | 73 | 10.8 | 17.1 | R+12.7 |
| Marion | South Pittsburg | 39 | 3.9 | 8.4 | R+32.7 |
| Marshall | 7 Hardison | 92 | 0.9 | 1.8 | R+31.5 |
| Maury | Spring Hill 11-2 | 64, 71 | 7.0 | 12.1 | R+38.1 |
| McMinn | Courthouse | 23 | 27.6 | 31.4 | R+56.0 |
| McNairy | Northeast 3-2 | 94 | 16.5 | 19.1 | R+46.6 |
| Meigs | 3-1 City Hall | 22 | 28.5 | 31.2 | R+60.9 |
| Monroe | 02 | 21 | 20.1 | 22.9 | R+47.7 |
| Montgomery | 2A Clarksville | 67, 68 | 3.0 | 5.5 | R+31.7 |
| Moore | 1 Masonic Lodge | 62 | 33.4 | 34.8 | R+64.5 |
| Morgan | 6-2 Petros | 41 | 26.8 | 34.9 | R+64.7 |
| Obion | 4-1 Fair Grounds | 77, 82 | 6.9 | 11.3 | R+18.4 |
| Overton | 1 Livingston | 41 | 16.7 | 19.2 | R+48.8 |
| Perry | 5-1 Linden | 72 | 20.9 | 24.8 | R+48.5 |
| Pickett | Travisville 3-2 | 38 | 24.9 | 31.0 | R+60.7 |
| Polk | Delano | 22 | 32.6 | 35.4 | R+64.7 |
| Putnam | 1A Capshaw | 42 | 2.1 | 4.1 | R+29.5 |
| Rhea | 5-1 Dayton North | 31 | 28.8 | 31.3 | R+61.0 |
| Roane | Harriman Ward 1 | 32 | 12.1 | 15.3 | R+41.5 |
| Robertson | 09-1 Fair Assoc. | 66 | 3.0 | 4.8 | R+27.9 |
| Rutherford | 18-2 | 34, 48 | 5.3 | 10.5 | R+19.2 |
| Scott | 3-1 Huntsville | 38 | 42.0 | 48.1 | R+72.9 |
| Sequatchie | 8 Lone Oak | 31 | 28.9 | 31.2 | R+57.0 |
| Sevier | 7-3 Walnut Grove | 12, 17 | 21.8 | 26.4 | R+48.6 |
| Smith | 06 Carthage | 40 | 16.9 | 19.0 | R+48.7 |
| Stewart | 6-1 Public Library | 74 | 28.0 | 30.5 | R+58.7 |
| Sullivan | 11B | 1, 2 | 3.7 | 9.5 | R+27.3 |
| Sumner | 9-1 Gallatin HS | 35 | 6.0 | 10.6 | R+37.7 |
| Tipton | 2-3 SE Covington | 81 | 12.4 | 17.0 | R+40.1 |
| Trousdale | 07 High School | 35 | 3.3 | 8.5 | R+30.1 |
| Unicoi | High School | 4 | 22.6 | 25.0 | R+49.7 |
| Union | 6-1 Paulette | 36 | 36.8 | 39.9 | R+68.8 |
| Van Buren | Cedar Grove | 31 | 27.1 | 29.7 | R+58.0 |
| Warren | 1-1 Christ Community Chur | 43 | 6.3 | 11.9 | R+32.8 |
| Washington | 12 Freedom Hall | 6, 7 | 2.7 | 6.5 | R+23.2 |
| Wayne | 2-1 Clifton | 71 | 29.1 | 30.9 | R+59.8 |
| White | 1-1 Sparta Civic | 43 | 19.6 | 23.8 | R+48.9 |
| Williamson | 6-1 | 61 | 3.6 | 5.0 | R+24.7 |
| Wilson | 10-1 | 57 | 4.0 | 8.3 | R+27.7 |
Part 2 · The swing
Inside the counties: where the 2026 swing came from
Seven counties have published 2026 results precinct by precinct, among them five of the six that voted for Bill Lee in 2022 and Jerri Green in 2026. In those counties, 585 of the 590 precincts we could compare moved toward Democrats from the 2022 governor’s race, and 130 switched from Lee to Green. Rutherford County’s typical precinct moved 34.4 points, more than the state’s 29.4.
Every precinct’s shift, county by county
Each dot is one precinct: how far it moved from the 2022 governor’s race to 2026. The tick is the county’s median precinct; the line is the statewide shift.
- A precinct
- Median precinct in the county
- Statewide shift
The most Republican places moved the most. In Hamilton, Madison, Knox, Shelby and Davidson, the more Republican a precinct was in 2022, the further it moved toward Democrats (correlations from −0.45 to −0.76). The most Democratic precincts had little room left to move. In Rutherford and Montgomery, how Republican a precinct had been said little about how far it moved.
The swing was broad, not a few big precincts. In every county, the tenth of precincts that moved the most votes supplied between 16 and 23 percent of the county’s net change. A flipped county did not flip because of one neighborhood.
Rutherford County: all 33 precincts moved toward Democrats, by a typical 34.4 points. Of those, 19 voted for Lee in 2022 and Green in 2026. Source: Rutherford County Election Commission results.
Rutherford County: 2022 margin and the shift
Each dot is a precinct. Left to right, how it voted for governor in 2022; down the chart, how far it moved toward Democrats by 2026.
- Statewide shift, 29.4 toward D
Rutherford County: the five precincts that moved most
Among precincts with at least 200 votes in both races. Ring: 2022 governor. Dot: 2026 governor.
- 2022 governor
- 2026 governor, Democrat ahead
- 2026 governor, Republican ahead
Part 3 · The flipped seats
All six flipped state House seats, precinct by precinct
Every one of the six state House seats that changed party sits wholly inside a county with 2026 precinct results. In all of them, every precinct moved toward the Democrat: 79 of 79. Of those, 34 changed sides; the rest were already Democratic or stayed Republican by less.
The six seats, 2024 to 2026
Ring: the 2024 state House margin. Dot: the 2026 margin. All crossed the middle line.
House 13. Robert Stevens (R) won in 2024 by 19.8 points; in 2026 Brett Windrow (D) beat Stevens by 2.9 points. All 10 precincts moved toward the Democrat and two changed sides. Three had already voted Democratic in 2024.
House 13: every precinct, 2024 to 2026
Ring: the 2024 state House margin in that precinct. Dot: the 2026 margin. Highlighted rows changed sides.
- 2024
- 2026, Democrat ahead
- 2026, Republican ahead
Part 4 · Same ballot, two races
Where Blackburn ran behind Hagerty
Bill Hagerty won the Senate race by 12.2 points on the same ballots that gave Marsha Blackburn 2.6 points. In six of the seven counties with precinct results, the gap was widest in the precincts where David Hatley, the independent for governor, drew the most votes. The exception was Shelby County.
Hagerty’s margin minus Blackburn’s, by county
The typical precinct’s gap, and how closely the gap followed Hatley’s share of the governor vote across the county’s precincts (1 would be a perfect match).
Montgomery
- Typical precinct gap
- +5.2 points
- Link to Hatley’s share
- 0.89
- Widest gap
- 06B
- There: Blackburn / Hagerty / Hatley
- R+38.6 / R+52.1 / 13.5%
Madison
- Typical precinct gap
- +8.9 points
- Link to Hatley’s share
- 0.78
- Widest gap
- 14 - Madison County Fire Station #13
- There: Blackburn / Hagerty / Hatley
- R+26.5 / R+46.1 / 12.8%
Rutherford
- Typical precinct gap
- +7.9 points
- Link to Hatley’s share
- 0.76
- Widest gap
- 02-1
- There: Blackburn / Hagerty / Hatley
- R+20.7 / R+34.8 / 11.1%
Hamilton
- Typical precinct gap
- +7.8 points
- Link to Hatley’s share
- 0.73
- Widest gap
- FLAT TOP MOUNTAIN
- There: Blackburn / Hagerty / Hatley
- R+43.3 / R+59.6 / 12.4%
Knox
- Typical precinct gap
- +7.5 points
- Link to Hatley’s share
- 0.61
- Widest gap
- 92-Gap Creek Elementary School
- There: Blackburn / Hagerty / Hatley
- R+21.4 / R+37.8 / 13.3%
Davidson
- Typical precinct gap
- +4.6 points
- Link to Hatley’s share
- 0.54
- Widest gap
- 2301
- There: Blackburn / Hagerty / Hatley
- R+9.9 / R+28.1 / 8.0%
Shelby
- Typical precinct gap
- −0.5 points
- Link to Hatley’s share
- −0.13
- Widest gap
- 04-02-I1
- There: Blackburn / Hagerty / Hatley
- R+5.6 / R+17.9 / 6.6%
| County | Typical precinct gap | Link to Hatley’s share | Widest gap | There: Blackburn / Hagerty / Hatley |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montgomery | +5.2 points | 0.89 | 06B | R+38.6 / R+52.1 / 13.5% |
| Madison | +8.9 points | 0.78 | 14 - Madison County Fire Station #13 | R+26.5 / R+46.1 / 12.8% |
| Rutherford | +7.9 points | 0.76 | 02-1 | R+20.7 / R+34.8 / 11.1% |
| Hamilton | +7.8 points | 0.73 | FLAT TOP MOUNTAIN | R+43.3 / R+59.6 / 12.4% |
| Knox | +7.5 points | 0.61 | 92-Gap Creek Elementary School | R+21.4 / R+37.8 / 13.3% |
| Davidson | +4.6 points | 0.54 | 2301 | R+9.9 / R+28.1 / 8.0% |
| Shelby | −0.5 points | −0.13 | 04-02-I1 | R+5.6 / R+17.9 / 6.6% |
Montgomery County: Hatley’s share and the Hagerty–Blackburn gap
Each dot is a precinct. Up the chart, how much better Hagerty’s margin was than Blackburn’s.
- Same margin
These are patterns across precincts, not a reading of any voter’s ballot. A precinct where Hatley did well and Blackburn trailed Hagerty is consistent with Republican voters choosing Hatley for governor and Hagerty for the Senate, but the precinct totals cannot show who did what.
Part 5 · Election night
Election night, precinct by precinct
Four counties split every precinct’s vote into early and Election Day ballots. In 302 of the 355 precincts with at least 50 of each, the Election Day vote was more Republican than the same precinct’s early vote. The gap was largest in Hamilton County, where Election Day ran more Republican in 90 of 91 precincts, by a typical 19.4 points.
Early vote and Election Day, in the same precincts
Governor’s race. Early includes absentee ballots; Election Day includes provisional ballots. A gap above zero means Election Day ran more Republican.
Shelby
- Precincts compared
- 138
- Election Day more Republican
- 98 of 138
- Typical gap
- +4.8 points
- Middle 80%
- −4.0 to +17.2
Hamilton
- Precincts compared
- 91
- Election Day more Republican
- 90 of 91
- Typical gap
- +19.4 points
- Middle 80%
- +7.5 to +30.3
Knox
- Precincts compared
- 97
- Election Day more Republican
- 91 of 97
- Typical gap
- +11.8 points
- Middle 80%
- +2.0 to +21.4
Madison
- Precincts compared
- 29
- Election Day more Republican
- 23 of 29
- Typical gap
- +9.5 points
- Middle 80%
- −1.7 to +37.8
| County | Precincts compared | Election Day more Republican | Typical gap | Middle 80% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shelby | 138 | 98 of 138 | +4.8 points | −4.0 to +17.2 |
| Hamilton | 91 | 90 of 91 | +19.4 points | +7.5 to +30.3 |
| Knox | 97 | 91 of 97 | +11.8 points | +2.0 to +21.4 |
| Madison | 29 | 23 of 29 | +9.5 points | −1.7 to +37.8 |
Shelby County precincts: early vote and Election Day
Each dot is a precinct. Above the line, its Election Day vote was more Republican than its early vote.
- Same margin both ways
Shelby’s Election Day count, in the order precincts came in
Grouped by the first saved read that showed each precinct’s Election Day vote. The Firefly desk saved Shelby’s feed every five minutes from 9:20 PM; the first group is every precinct already in by then. Ring: those precincts’ early vote. Dot: their Election Day vote.
- Early vote
- Election Day, Democrat ahead
- Election Day, Republican ahead
The order mattered. In Shelby, the 81 precincts whose Election Day votes were in by 9:34 PM had voted D+33.8 early; the 61 that came in after had voted D+49.9. So the county’s running Election Day count was at its most Republican at 9:34 PM, D+26.7, and finished at D+34.2. A count read early reads whichever precincts report first.
Early vote and Election Day, county totals from the counties’ own reports
Governor’s race. Early includes absentee ballots; Election Day includes provisional ballots.
Shelby
- Early and absentee
- D+40.4
- Election Day
- D+34.2
- Early votes
- 182,817
- Election Day votes
- 71,290
- Report
- Shelby County Election Commission results (Enhanced Voting)
Hamilton
- Early and absentee
- D+18.7
- Election Day
- R+0.6
- Early votes
- 69,741
- Election Day votes
- 55,525
- Report
- Hamilton County Election Commission results
Knox
- Early and absentee
- D+9.3
- Election Day
- D+0.1
- Early votes
- 102,338
- Election Day votes
- 54,669
- Report
- Knox County Election Commission precinct results report (ES&S)
Madison
- Early and absentee
- D+11.0
- Election Day
- R+7.5
- Early votes
- 15,993
- Election Day votes
- 11,344
- Report
- Madison County Election Commission results by precinct (ES&S)
Montgomery
- Early and absentee
- D+13.2
- Election Day
- R+2.3
- Early votes
- 32,729
- Election Day votes
- 24,415
- Report
- Montgomery County Election Commission results
Rutherford
- Early and absentee
- D+12.3
- Election Day
- D+1.4
- Early votes
- 67,601
- Election Day votes
- 34,440
- Report
- Rutherford County Election Commission results
| County | Early and absentee | Election Day | Early votes | Election Day votes | Report |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shelby | D+40.4 | D+34.2 | 182,817 | 71,290 | Shelby County Election Commission results (Enhanced Voting) |
| Hamilton | D+18.7 | R+0.6 | 69,741 | 55,525 | Hamilton County Election Commission results |
| Knox | D+9.3 | D+0.1 | 102,338 | 54,669 | Knox County Election Commission precinct results report (ES&S) |
| Madison | D+11.0 | R+7.5 | 15,993 | 11,344 | Madison County Election Commission results by precinct (ES&S) |
| Montgomery | D+13.2 | R+2.3 | 32,729 | 24,415 | Montgomery County Election Commission results |
| Rutherford | D+12.3 | D+1.4 | 67,601 | 34,440 | Rutherford County Election Commission results |
Montgomery’s and Rutherford’s results files label their vote-type columns A, E and W without a key. W is walk-in (early) voting and E is Election Day. Read that way, the early and absentee governor votes come to 32,729 in Montgomery and 67,601 in Rutherford, against 32,636 and 67,625 early and absentee voters in the state’s final early-voting count, taken before the last absentee ballots arrived. Read the other way, early votes would fall thousands short of the voters who cast them. Every report’s vote types add up to the county’s total in the state’s returns.
Part 6 · What comes next
After certification: every precinct in the state
Tennessee’s counties certify their results by November 23, and the Secretary of State then publishes one certified file with every precinct in the state. When it does, this page is rebuilt from it: the 2026 test of every bellwether precinct with a full record, and the swing inside all 95 counties, not just Shelby, Montgomery, Rutherford, Hamilton, Knox, Madison and Davidson. Until then the 2026 results here are the counties’ own, 615 precincts, each county matched to the state’s unofficial returns candidate by candidate.
Part 7 · Method
How we did this
2020 to 2024. Every earlier result is read from the Secretary of State’s certified precinct-level files for the November 2020, 2022 and 2024 elections. For each race, the precinct votes add up to the state’s certified statewide totals exactly, Republican, Democratic and total, and to every county’s total. A few rows in those files are not places (county-wide absentee pools in Davidson, Cannon and Montgomery in 2020, and early-vote write-in rows); they count in the totals and nowhere else.
Margins and misses. A margin is the Republican candidate’s share minus the Democrat’s, counting every vote cast in the race. A precinct’s miss is its margin minus the statewide margin in the same race. Bellwethers are ranked by average miss across the five statewide races, among precincts that the Republican carried every time, as the state did, and that cast at least 100 votes in each race.
Following a precinct. A precinct is the same place in two elections when it keeps its name or its precinct code (Shelby’s 2026 names add a suffix to the 2024 name; a precinct split in two is compared as its two pieces added together), and its share of the county’s vote changes by no more than half and falls by no more than a third. Names alone are not enough: several counties kept precinct names on redrawn lines.
2026. From each county election commission’s own published results: Shelby (Shelby County Election Commission results (Enhanced Voting)), Montgomery (Montgomery County Election Commission results), Rutherford (Rutherford County Election Commission results), Hamilton (Hamilton County Election Commission results), Knox (Knox County Election Commission precinct results report (ES&S)), Madison (Madison County Election Commission results by precinct (ES&S)) and Davidson (Davidson County Election Commission contest-by-precinct report). For every race a county reports, each candidate’s precinct votes add up to the county total in the Firefly’s frozen copy of the state’s unofficial returns, the file behind the November results archive. Write-ins are left out, as the state’s unofficial returns leave them out. Knox County’s vote-type figures are from its official cumulative report.
Election night. Shelby’s precinct vote types are from the county’s final election-night results. The reporting order comes from the Firefly desk’s saved copies of the same feed, taken every five minutes from 9:20 PM Central until morning.
Reconciliation. All checks passed: every 2020, 2022 and 2024 race's precincts add up to the state's certified statewide totals; every county's 2026 precinct report adds up to its county totals in the frozen state archive, candidate by candidate; every 2026 precinct is either compared, left out for a change in its share of the vote, or unmatched, and the three account for all of them. The data behind this page is free to use: download every precinct as a spreadsheet.