On Tuesday morning, the Tennessee Journal reported that internal polling from the John Rose campaign for governor showed that Congressman Rose had “closed ground on longtime frontrunner Marsha Blackburn.”¶
Specifically, the article reported that 600 likely Republican voters were polled by McLaughlin & Associates for the Rose campaign from June 28 to June 30, and that just 35 percent of likely Republican voters indicated they held a positive favorable opinion about Blackburn.¶
That number was a drastic aberration from any polling publicly released or conducted by Tennesseans for Student Success (TSS) Action over the last 18 months. Namely, it was an unfathomable outcome from any survey of Republican primary voters when reviewing the six polls conducted by TSS Action across those same dates. These six surveys represent 1,750 known Republican primary voters, also verifying the likelihood of their participation in the 2026 Republican primary for governor, in state legislative districts across all three Grand Divisions.¶
While the TSS Action polling did not request a head-to-head ballot question, those surveyed were asked to give their opinion of Marsha Blackburn. Here are the results:¶
QUESTION:¶
What is your opinion of Marsha Blackburn?¶
RESPONSE OPTIONS:¶
Very Favorable¶
Somewhat Favorable¶
Somewhat Unfavorable¶
Very Unfavorable¶
No Opinion/Never Heard Of¶
Wilson and Sumner Counties (Full Counties) | June 27-29 | 400 Respondents | MOE ± 4.9%¶
Very Favorable 36.0%¶
Somewhat Favorable 33.7%¶
Somewhat Unfavorable 10.4%¶
Very Unfavorable 15.7%¶
No Opinion/Never Heard Of 4.2%¶
TOTAL FAVORABILITY 69.7%¶
House District 18 – Knox County | June 28-July 1 | 300 Respondents | MOE ± 5.66%¶
Very Favorable 37.4%¶
Somewhat Favorable 25.6%¶
Somewhat Unfavorable 8.3%¶
Very Unfavorable 21.9%¶
No Opinion/Never Heard Of 6.8%¶
TOTAL FAVORABILITY 63.0%¶
House District 31 – Rhea, Sequatchie, Bledsoe and Van Buren Counties | June 28-June 30 | 300 Respondents | MOE ± 5.66%¶
Very Favorable 40.8%¶
Somewhat Favorable 33.2%¶
Somewhat Unfavorable 8.5%¶
Very Unfavorable 11.9%¶
No Opinion/Never Heard Of 5.5%¶
TOTAL FAVORABILITY 74.0%¶
House District 45 – Sumner County | June 28-July 2 | 250 Respondents | MOE ± 6.2%¶
Very Favorable 36.2%¶
Somewhat Favorable. 30.2%¶
Somewhat Unfavorable 9.2%¶
Very Unfavorable 20.8%¶
No Opinion/Never Heard Of 3.6%¶
TOTAL FAVORABILITY 66.4%¶
House District 78 – Cheatham and Dickson Counties | June 28-July 2 | 250 Respondents | MOE ± 6.2%¶
Very Favorable 30.7%¶
Somewhat Favorable 35.6%¶
Somewhat Unfavorable 9.0%¶
Very Unfavorable 17.7%¶
No Opinion/Never Heard Of 7.0%¶
TOTAL FAVORABILITY 66.3%¶
House District 81 – Tipton and Haywood Counties | June 28-July 2 | 250 Respondents | MOE ± 6.2%¶
Very Favorable 49.6%¶
Somewhat Favorable 25.1%¶
Somewhat Unfavorable 10.5%¶
Very Unfavorable 10.6%¶
No Opinion/Never Heard Of 4.2%¶
TOTAL FAVORABILITY 74.7%¶
As seen in the polling data above, in none of these surveys do the results show a favorability for Blackburn below 63 percent.¶
An objective view of the information reported by the Rose campaign’s internal poll would call into question the validity of the claims being made. More directly, a 30-point disparity in a candidate’s favorability conducted over the same period would likely be the result of either an oversampling of Democratic voters or those who do not intend to vote in the Republican primary, releasing false or misleading data, or a polling process so flawed that the Rose campaign should request a refund.¶
Though as we do with student achievement and accountability in public schools, we follow the data! In that spirit, we encourage McLaughlin & Associates or Congressman Rose’s campaign to release the full details of their findings.¶
Tennesseans for Student Success Action is a political action committee devoted to elevating education policy to the forefront of political campaigns, recruiting and training education heroes for public office, and helping them win at the ballot box.¶
