On the Fly: State Primary and General Election Preview
Episode notes
Today, Tennessee voters will decide the primaries for every State House seat and odd-numbered Senate seats, along with the governor’s office.
Obviously, the governor’s race is attracting the most attention, especially on the GOP side, where cash and polling have dominated headlines lately. U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn has outraised the field in the last four campaign filings, while her best-funded opponent, Congressman John Rose, has loaned his campaign $13 million to compete.
Independent polls have shown Blackburn leading this race all year, though there have been some polls released lately with direct ties to Rose showing a closer race. Blackburn supporters have criticized the bias in those polls and questioned their accuracy.
Democrats have struggled to field well-funded candidates for state office in recent years, and only one candidate who’s held elected office qualified. Memphis City Councilmember Jerri Green has a commanding fundraising lead over her competitors and even reported more in contributions than Republican candidates other than Blackburn on the most recent two campaign filings.
Because of the political makeup of House and Senate districts, there are few truly competitive general elections in Tennessee, so tonight’s primary races will be decisive for who will be serving in the General Assembly. Notably, there are more open seats than usual this year, with 11 in the House and 1 in the Senate.
That seat, District 5, was left open when Lieutenant Governor Randy McNally retired. Former state representative Jimmy Matlock will be an early winner there as he’s running unopposed in GOP primary.
On the House side, the Education Freedom Scholarship program has been a big issue…dividing candidates in several open GOP seats, including East Tennessee’s House District 31 and Middle Tennessee’s Districts 45 and 78.
On the Democrat side, Nashville’s House District 59 is one to watch with four well-funded candidates running. Also keep an eye on Memphis House District 93. No candidate qualified to be on the ballot for the seat formerly held by the late Representative G.A. Hardaway. County Commissioner Britney Thornton is running a write-in campaign, and if she gets 1100 write ins votes, she’ll be on the November ballot as the Democratic nominee, facing Hardaway’s son, who opted to skip the primary and run as a write-in candidate in November.
Tomorrow we may also be talking about multiple incumbent Representatives who were defeated. Political insiders say keep a close watch on Representative Dennis Powers in District 36 and Representative Todd Warner in House District 92. Warner opted to run for both his seat and Congress at the same time this year and is also facing criticism for his involvement in a controversial quarry lake project.
That will do it for this special edition of On the Fly. Be sure and check the Firefly site tomorrow where we’ll have race results and analysis. I’m Sky Arnold