Tennessee schools could face a growing enrollment problem as fewer children enroll.¶
Tennessee recorded 83,021 births in 2023, which is about 4 percent fewer than in 2007, according to a report by ExcelinEd. Public kindergarten enrollment also fell 5 percent in 2024 from the previous year. The trend could eventually affect more than traditional public schools. Charter and private schools in other states are also starting to feel the effects of smaller student populations.¶
Most State Districts Are Already Losing Students¶
Growth in a few Middle Tennessee districts has offset enrollment slumps across much of Tennessee. Rutherford, Montgomery, Williamson and Wilson counties added about 27,000 students combined. Other areas have lost thousands. Memphis-Shelby County Schools lost more than 7,000 students over the decade and started this school year with more than 2,000 fewer students than the previous year. Families choosing charter schools, private schools, or homeschooling may account for some enrollment changes, but lower birth rates and population shifts also matter.¶
School Closure Data
Some districts have already responded by closing underused schools. Memphis-Shelby County Schools closed five schools at the end of the 2025-2026 school year, affecting more than 1,200 students, as the first phase of a plan that could close up to 15 schools by 2028. The five buildings selected for the first round had more than $6.5 million in immediate maintenance needs and an estimated $48 million over 20 years. A previous district proposal estimated the closures and consolidations could save more than $6 million in the first year.¶
In 2020, Metro Nashville Public Schools (MNPS) closed four under-enrolled schools in an effort to save about $3.4 million each year. Districts can also look beyond school buildings when reducing costs. Hamilton County Schools cut $5.3 million from its central office in its 2025-2026 budget and eliminated 46 central-office positions, an 11 percent reduction. Knox County Schools also eliminated 27.5 central-office jobs in 2025 to protect classroom services.¶
Declining Enrollment Affects Funding
Student enrollment also matters under Tennessee’s school funding formula. The Tennessee Investment in Student Achievement, or TISA, sends funding based largely on the number of students a public school system serves and their needs. When students leave a district, funding can eventually fall as well.¶
However, school costs do not always drop at the same rate. Districts still have to operate buildings, run buses, and employ teachers even if enrollment declines. Charter schools also need enough students to cover staffing, facilities, and other costs, so enrollment data matter as Tennessee adds more education options. In many Tennessee communities, declining enrollment is also tied to birth rates and population changes. That means traditional districts, charter schools, and other education providers may increasingly have to compete for students in a market that is growing quickly in some parts of Tennessee while shrinking in many others.¶
