The first publicly released independent poll of the Nashville mayoral election shows two state senators and one member of Metro Council in a tight race.
Senator Heidi Campbell, D-Nashville, leads the crowded field with nearly 22 percent, followed by Senator Jeff Yarbro, D-Nashville, with 17 percent, and Metro Councilman Freddie O’Connell with more than 15 percent.
The poll, conducted on behalf of Tennesseans for Student Success by VictoryPhones, polled 500 likely Davidson County voters between May 2 and May 4. The organization plans to release the full poll on Wednesday, including voter opinions about education, the recently passed agreement to build a new, enclosed, stadium for the Tennessee Titans, and Nashville hosting a political party convention. The Tennessee Firefly receives funding from Tennesseans for Student Success.
The polling has a margin of error of 4.38 percent.
Nearly 19 percent of those polled chose “other,” leaving open the possibility that many voters have not made up their minds yet. Those voters could provide an opportunity for well funded candidates like affordable housing and economic development leader Matt Wiltshire and business leader Jim Gingrich. Wiltshire had more than $1.4 million on hand according to his most recent campaign filing while Gingrich had more than $2 million.
The August 3rd Metro Nashville mayoral race became a much more crowded contest in January when the incumbent, Mayor John Cooper, announced he was not seeking a second term. With more than ten potential candidates, it’s considered unlikely any will receive more than the 50 percent vote threshold to avoid a runoff.
Poll respondents were also asked for their second choice on the ballot and Senators Yarbro and Campbell both earned 20 percent, followed by Wiltshire at more than 10 percent, and O’Connell at just over 9 percent.
The poll also asked likely Davidson County voters what qualities they prioritize when considering their vote for mayor. Top responses included the candidates positions on education and infrastructure spending, as well as positions on social issues, each receiving more than 20 percent.
Local government experience ranked third at just over 18 percent, potentially surprising in a poll that showed two state senators atop the ballot. Only 5 percent of voters said they prioritized legislative experience. That could aid the support of Senator Campbell (a former Oak Hill mayor), along with current Metro Councilmembers O’Connell and Sharon Hurt, Property Assessor Vivian Wilhoite, and former Metro Nashville Public School Board Member Fran Bush.
Leading Candidate Breakdown
Senator Heidi Campbell first entered politics when she successfully ran to be the vice mayor and later mayor of Oak Hill. Campbell then beat out former Republican Senator Steve Dickerson for Nashville’s Senate District 20.
Campbell arguably has the best name recognition of any candidate in the field following her unsuccessful bid in last year’s highly publicized race against Congressman Andy Ogles in the 5th Congressional District.
Senator Jeff Yarbro won his first term in 2014 to represent Senate District 21 in Nashville and has been re-elected twice since then.
Freddie O’Connell won the race to represent the Metro Council District 19 in 2015 and ran unopposed in 2019.
Sharon Hurt won an At-Large seat on Metro Council in 2015 and then won re-election in 2019.
Matt Wiltshire led economic and community development for three mayors from 2011 to 2018 and then became the Chief Strategy and Intergovernmental Affairs Officer for the Metropolitan Development and Housing Administration.
Jim Gingrich served as the Chief Operating Officer of AllianceBernstein and moved the company to Nashville in 2018.
Vivian Wilhoite served two terms as a Metro Council Member and then upset incumbent George Rooker Jr. in the Davidson County Property Assessor race in 2016. Wilhoite won re-election in 2020.
Fran Bush won the Metro Nashville School Board District 6 seat in 2018. She lost her bid for re-election last year.
Alice Rolli served as the Assistant Commissioners of Strategy for the Tennessee Department of Economic and Community Development and was the Campaign Manager for former U.S. Senator Lamar Alexander.
