A new independent poll of the Nashville mayoral election shows Metro Councilman Freddie O’Connell in a strong position to make the expected runoff, with three candidates emerging from a packed field to potentially face him.
O’Connell leads the poll of likely Davidson County voters with more than 25 percent, followed by former Tennessee Department of Economic and Community Development Assistant Commissioner Alice Rolli with nearly 19 percent, affordable housing and economic development leader Matt Wiltshire with more than 14 percent, and State Senator Jeff Yarbro, D-Nashville, with just over 13 percent.
The poll, conducted on behalf of Tennesseans for Student Success by VictoryPhones, polled 500 likely voters between July 25 and July 27. The Tennessee Firefly is a project of and supported by Tennesseans for Student Success.
The polling has a margin of error of 4.38 percent.
This is the second mayoral poll to be released by Tennesseans for Student Success and it shows a considerable drop by the initial polling leader, State Senator Heidi Campbell, D-Nashville. Campbell led the initial poll in May with nearly 22 percent. She’s now in fifth place with just under 6 percent.
With so many candidates running and only two days till the August 3 election, it’s considered highly unlikely any will receive more than the 50 percent vote threshold to avoid a runoff.
The poll found Alice Rolli in a difficult position if she does make the runoff.
Rolli is the lone Republican who’s polling as a contender in the race that’s expected to have a majority of voters coming from the Democratic party. Just 1 percent of likely voters chose her as their second preference if their top choice was unavailable.
The poll may have found some encouraging news for Senator Yarbro if he were to make the runoff. Yarbro was the top second choice with more than 21 percent, followed by Wiltshire with just over 16 percent.
Both questions found a sizable number of voters may still be undecided with more than 14 percent choosing “other” candidate as their top choice and nearly 34 percent as their second.
These voters offer potential for Wiltshire’s campaign as he enjoys the top visibility in the poll. More than 38 percent of likely voters say they’ve seen or heard the most from Wiltshire, followed by O’Connell at more than 25 percent.
There’s a steep drop in visibility following the top two candidates, with less than 8 percent of voters saying they’ve heard the most about Senator Yarbro and more than 5 percent saying the same of Rolli.
Of the two, Senator Yarbro has the most resources to campaign for undecided voters. Yarbro reported a $112 thousand balance on hand in his latest campaign finance disclosure compared to Rolli’s $51 thousand balance on hand.
Wiltshire reported $183 thousand balance on hand in the same report while O’Connell reported $74 thousand.
