This week Tennesseans for Student Success released an independent poll of likely voters in the Nashville mayor’s race showing four candidates in striking distance to make the runoff tonight.
It’s considered highly unlikely any candidate will receive more than the 50 percent vote threshold to avoid a runoff and historically, races with so many well-funded candidates in the running, do see a higher turnout.
The latest poll found Metro Councilman Freddie O’Connell leading with more than 25 percent, followed by former Tennessee Department of Economic and Community Development Assistant Commissioner Alice Rolli with nearly 19 percent, affordable housing and economic development leader Matt Wiltshire with more than 14 percent, and State Senator Jeff Yarbro, D-Nashville, with just over 13 percent. The Tennessee Firefly is a project of and supported by Tennesseans for Student Success.
Historically the race seems similar to mayoral races in 2015 and 2007 that also had multiple candidates polling with a chance to make the runoff.
A WSMV poll released in late July of 2007 found eventual winner Karl Dean, Bob Clement, Buck Dozier, and Howard Gentry either making the runoff or no further away than 5 percentage points from making it. In 2015 a late July poll by the Tennessee Laborers PAC had eventual winner Megan Barry, David Fox and Bill Freeman in a virtual dead heat to make the runoff.
The final voting turnouts were higher for both elections with 30 percent of registered voters taking part in 2007 and 28 percent in 2015. Turnout was much lower, 19 percent, in 2011 when Mayor Karl Dean was running for re-election against lesser known competitors. The same was true of the 2019 mayoral race where 23 percent of total voters turned out in a race where Mayor David Briley and eventual winner Metro Councilman John Cooper were the well-known frontrunners.
That history could lead to predictions of a stronger voter turnout this year, but it didn’t show up in the early voting totals.
More than 11 percent of all voters voted early this year, including voters considered inactive. That’s basically the same percentage that turned out early for the 2019 mayoral election and its only 3 percent higher than 2011’s dismal 8 percent early voting turnout.
By comparison, 14 percent of voters voted early in 2015.
Davidson County Elections Administrator Jeff Roberts told WKRN at the start of early voting that the low turnout could be due to a number of factors, including voters taking their time to make up their minds with so many candidates on the ballot and the fact one contending candidate for mayor, Jim Gingrich, dropped out.
“Some voters are rethinking, maybe waiting to see how things shake out as we approach election day, , so where they may have voted at the beginning of early voting in the past, they may be holding off a little bit and vote toward the end of early voting,” said Roberts.
Roberts’ prediction did prove to be correct. The last three days of early voting had the three highest turnouts and they combined to represent nearly 39 percent of the two-week early voting total.
We’ll know tonight if that voting momentum carries turnout to be similar to races in 2015 and 2007 or more like the last Metro General Election.
